Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) Fair Value 2026

VGZ · Gold and Silver Ores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) trades at $1.64, approximately 142% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.68. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VGZ
Price
$1.64
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +71.6% upside with 14% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $1.30, 20.5% below the current price of $1.64. Estimates range from $0.07 to $2.87. VGZ scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vista Gold Corp Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.68 -58.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $0.99 -39.6%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $2.81 +71.6%
ML-RIV
High Conviction
 $0.07 -96.0%

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What Is Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Vista Gold Corp at its current price of $1.64. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $1.41 (-13.9% average return), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Sentiment SOTP sees the most upside at +75.2% (fair value: $2.87), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -96.0% ($0.07). The spread between these extremes — +171.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About VGZ?

9 of 13 models are currently active for VGZ. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates VGZ's intrinsic value at $0.68, implying -58.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VGZ Rank in Gold and Silver Ores?

Among 62 Gold and Silver Ores stocks, VGZ ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold and Silver Ores Stocks →

Vista Gold Corp operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is VGZ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VGZ a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Vista Gold Corp. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Vista Gold Corp is rated at 6.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +171.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VGZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VGZ's 9 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vista Gold Corp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold and Silver Ores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Gold and Silver Ores stocks with 13-model coverage

FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.4NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3DRDDRDGOLD LimitedQOC 9.2HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company LimQOC 9.1IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.7KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 8.1VOXRVox Royalty Corp.QOC 7.5

Read investment analysis: FSM · NEM · DRD · HMY · IDR

See all Gold and Silver Ores stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Vista Gold Corp

What is Vista Gold Corp's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.68. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VGZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.64, 3 of 9 active models suggest VGZ may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $1.30, 20.5% below the current price of $1.64 — a consensus view that VGZ is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vista Gold Corp's business model in Gold and Silver Ores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for VGZ?

Vista Gold Corp's QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VGZ?

CirclFi analyzes VGZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VGZ a value trap in 2026?

Vista Gold Corp's Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) has a median fair value of $1.30 — 20.5% below the current price of $1.64 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VGZ/ · Methodology

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