HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) Fair Value 2026

HSBC · Banks - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) trades at $102.85, versus a $177.04 median fair value across its 2 active models — 72.1% above the current price. QOC: 2.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HSBC
Price
$102.85
Quality Score
2.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +88.0% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $177.04, 72.1% above the current price of $102.85. Estimates range from $160.70 to $193.38. HSBC scores 2.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HSBC’s +72.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Diversified sector median is -8.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HSBC Holdings plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HSBC?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($102.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $160.70 +56.2%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $193.38 +88.0%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for HSBC Holdings plc. Trading at $102.85 against an estimated intrinsic value of $177.04, 2 of 2 active models flag meaningful upside of +72.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $193.38 (+88.0%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $160.70 (+56.2%). This +31.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about HSBC Holdings plc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HSBC?

2 of 13 models are currently active for HSBC. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for HSBC is $177.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HSBC Rank in Banks - Diversified?

Among 20 Banks - Diversified stocks, HSBC ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

HSBC Holdings plc's positioning within the Banks - Diversified segment means that net interest margin (NIM) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HSBC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HSBC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for HSBC Holdings plc. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, HSBC Holdings plc earns a quality score of 2.6/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +31.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HSBC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HSBC's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HSBC Holdings plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Banks - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

UBSUBS Group AGQOC 2.9BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.QOC 8.9FRBTForbright, Inc.QOC 4.9CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQOC 8.6SMFGSumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.QOC 6.6NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son LimitedQOC 8.5BMOBank of MontrealQOC 8.3BACBank of America CorporationQOC 8.0BNSThe Bank of Nova ScotiaQOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: UBS · BBVA · FRBT · CM · SMFG · NTB · BMO · BAC · BNS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HSBC?

7 companies across all industries closest to HSBC’s Quality of Company score of 2.6/10.

HUDIHuadi International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6ETOReToro Group Ltd.QOC 2.6CMCLCaledonia Mining Corporation PlcQOC 2.6PHARPharming Group N.V.QOC 2.6SNTGSentage Holdings Inc.QOC 2.6CNLCollective Mining Ltd.QOC 2.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HUDI · ETOR · CMCL · PHAR · SNTG · CNL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About HSBC Holdings plc’s Valuation?

What is HSBC Holdings plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC)'s intrinsic value at $177.04 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $160.70 to $193.38. The Quality of Company score is 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HSBC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $102.85, 2 of 2 active models suggest HSBC may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $177.04, 72.1% above the current price of $102.85 — a consensus view that HSBC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HSBC Holdings plc's business model in Banks - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.6 mean for HSBC?

HSBC Holdings plc's QOC of 2.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HSBC?

CirclFi analyzes HSBC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HSBC a value trap in 2026?

HSBC Holdings plc's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) has a median fair value of $177.04 — 72.1% above the current price of $102.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HSBC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HSBC valuation
  • Financial statements: HSBC Holdings plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001089113) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HSBC as of ; valuations recomputed .