eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) Fair Value 2026

ETOR · Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) trades at $37.44, approximately 225% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.53. QOC: 2.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ETOR
Price
$37.44
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +26.8% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $24.00, 35.9% below the current price of $37.44. Estimates range from $8.18 to $48.38. ETOR scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy eToro Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$11.53 -69.2%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$12.66 -66.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$24.00 -35.9%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$47.46 +26.8%

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What Is eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, eToro Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $24.21. Trading at its current price of $37.44, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -35.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $48.38 (+29.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $8.18 (-78.1%). This +107.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ETOR?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ETOR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ETOR's intrinsic value at $11.53, implying -69.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ETOR Rank in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies?

Among 33 Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks, ETOR ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks →

eToro Group Ltd. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ETOR a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ETOR. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for eToro Group Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, eToro Group Ltd. scores 2.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ETOR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ETOR's 13 active models, average confidence is 17%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy eToro Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: FUTU · SIEB · BLK · IBKR · MKTX

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Frequently Asked Questions About eToro Group Ltd.

What is eToro Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $11.53. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ETOR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.44, 3 of 13 active models suggest ETOR may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $24.00, 35.9% below the current price of $37.44 — a consensus view that ETOR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits eToro Group Ltd.'s business model in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for ETOR?

eToro Group Ltd.'s QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ETOR?

CirclFi analyzes ETOR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ETOR a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ETOR at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) has a median fair value of $24.00 — 35.9% below the current price of $37.44 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ETOR/ · Methodology

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