Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Fair Value 2026

AGRO · Farm Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) trades at $10.74, versus a $9.34 median fair value across its 2 active models — 13.0% below the current price. QOC: 2.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGRO
Price
$10.74
Quality Score
2.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +34.6% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $9.34, 13.0% below the current price of $10.74. Estimates range from $4.22 to $14.46. AGRO scores 2.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AGRO’s -13.0% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Adecoagro S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AGRO?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $4.22 -60.7%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $14.46 +34.6%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adecoagro S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $9.34, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $10.74. While the median implied return is -13.0%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +95.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $14.46 (+34.6%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $4.22 (-60.7%). This +95.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Adecoagro S.A.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AGRO?

2 of 13 models are currently active for AGRO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AGRO is $9.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGRO Rank in Farm Products?

Among 22 Farm Products stocks, AGRO ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

Adecoagro S.A. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AGRO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGRO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Adecoagro S.A.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Adecoagro S.A.'s fundamental quality profile registers 2.6/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +95.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGRO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGRO's 2 active models, average confidence is 17%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Adecoagro S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Farm Products stocks with 13-model coverage

SDOTSadot Group Inc.QOC 3.7AFRIForafric Global PLCQOC 1.9EDBLEdible Garden AG IncorporatedQOC 4.2CALMCal-Maine Foods, Inc.QOC 9.0AQBAquaBounty Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.6VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.QOC 8.8DMCDel Monte CorporationQOC 8.5LNDBrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades AgrícolasQOC 6.6MGNCMag Magna Corp.QOC 5.7

Read investment analysis: SDOT · AFRI · EDBL · CALM · AQB · VFF · DMC · LND · MGNC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AGRO?

7 companies across all industries closest to AGRO’s Quality of Company score of 2.6/10.

BUDAnheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVQOC 2.6CLWTEuro Tech Holdings Company LimitedQOC 2.6DLODLocal LimitedQOC 2.6STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.QOC 2.6AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.QOC 2.7TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BUD · CLWT · DLO · STM · AG · TKLF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Adecoagro S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Adecoagro S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)'s intrinsic value at $9.34 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.22 to $14.46. The Quality of Company score is 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGRO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.74, 1 of 2 active models suggest AGRO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $9.34, 13.0% below the current price of $10.74 — a consensus view that AGRO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Adecoagro S.A.'s business model in Farm Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.6 mean for AGRO?

Adecoagro S.A.'s QOC of 2.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGRO?

CirclFi analyzes AGRO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AGRO a value trap in 2026?

Adecoagro S.A.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) has a median fair value of $9.34 — 13.0% below the current price of $10.74 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AGRO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AGRO valuation
  • Financial statements: Adecoagro S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001499505) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AGRO as of ; valuations recomputed .