Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Fair Value 2026

ADM · Farm Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) trades at $81.54, versus a $50.37 median fair value across its 11 active models — 38.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $71.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADM
Price
$81.54
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $50.37, 38.2% below the current price of $81.54. Estimates range from $24.91 to $129.80. ADM scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ADM’s -38.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($81.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.84 -11.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $50.37 -38.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $61.33 -24.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.80 -48.7%
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What Is ADM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $24.91 to $129.80

CirclFi's 11 active models place Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) between $24.91 and $129.80 per share, a spread of 208% of the median. The median of that range — $50.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ADM, against a current price of $81.54.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$24.91median $50.37$129.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$24.91
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$129.80
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ADM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ADM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $50.37. Trading at $81.54, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -38.2%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $129.80 (+59.2%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $24.91 (-69.5%). This +128.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ADM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ADM. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ADM is $50.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $71.84 on its own, implying -11.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADM Rank in Farm Products?

Among 22 Farm Products stocks, ADM ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ADM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADM a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADM's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Farm Products stocks with 13-model coverage

TSNTyson Foods, Inc.QOC 7.6AGRZAgroz Inc.QOC 6.9DOLEDole plcQOC 7.8BGBunge Global SAQOC 6.8DMCDel Monte CorporationQOC 8.5LNDBrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades AgrícolasQOC 6.6LMNRLimoneira CompanyQOC 6.4AQBAquaBounty Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.6CALMCal-Maine Foods, Inc.QOC 9.0VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.QOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: TSN · AGRZ · DOLE · BG · DMC · LND · LMNR · AQB · CALM · VFF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADM?

7 companies across all industries closest to ADM’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

OMCLOmnicell, Inc.QOC 7.5COFCapital One Financial CorporationQOC 7.5TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5CCitigroup Inc.QOC 7.5CBZCBIZ, Inc.QOC 7.5BULLWebull CorporationQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OMCL · COF · TKO · C · CBZ · BULL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Archer-Daniels-Midland Company’s Valuation?

What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)'s intrinsic value at $50.37 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $24.91 to $129.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $71.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $81.54, 3 of 11 active models suggest ADM may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $50.37, 38.2% below the current price of $81.54 — a consensus view that ADM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's business model in Farm Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for ADM?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADM?

CirclFi analyzes ADM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ADM?

Of the 11 models currently active on ADM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $129.80 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $24.91. CirclFi's published fair value for ADM is the median of that range, $50.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 208% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ADM a value trap in 2026?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has a median fair value of $50.37 — 38.2% below the current price of $81.54 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADM valuation
  • Financial statements: Archer-Daniels-Midland Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000007084) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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