Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Fair Value 2026

COF · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) trades at $215.67, versus a $150.12 median fair value across its 6 active models — 30.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
COF
Price
$215.67
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $150.12, 30.4% below the current price of $215.67. Estimates range from $86.89 to $309.37. COF scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. COF’s -30.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Capital One Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give COF?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($215.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $86.89 -59.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $152.63 -29.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $147.60 -31.6%
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What Is COF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $86.89 to $309.37

CirclFi's 6 active models place Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) between $86.89 and $309.37 per share, a spread of 148% of the median. The median of that range — $150.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for COF, against a current price of $215.67.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$86.89median $150.12$309.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$86.89
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$309.37
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for COF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on COF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Capital One Financial Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $150.12. Trading at $215.67, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -30.4%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $309.37 (+43.4%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $86.89 (-59.7%). This +103.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Capital One Financial Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About COF?

6 of 13 models are currently active for COF. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for COF is $150.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does COF Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, COF ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

Capital One Financial Corporation's positioning within the Credit Services segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is COF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COF a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Capital One Financial Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Capital One Financial Corporation scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +103.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every COF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across COF's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Capital One Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

OMFOneMain Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5CPSSConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc.QOC 7.5ATLCAtlanticus Holdings CorporationQOC 7.6WUThe Western Union CompanyQOC 7.4PMTSCPI Card Group Inc.QOC 7.6NNINelnet, Inc.QOC 7.4WRLDWorld Acceptance CorporationQOC 6.8SNTGSentage Holdings Inc.QOC 2.6OPFIOppFi Inc.QOC 8.4JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: OMF · CPSS · ATLC · WU · PMTS · NNI · WRLD · SNTG · OPFI · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to COF?

7 companies across all industries closest to COF’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland CompanyQOC 7.5CCitigroup Inc.QOC 7.5OMCLOmnicell, Inc.QOC 7.5BULLWebull CorporationQOC 7.5TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5CARRCarrier Global CorporationQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ADM · C · OMCL · BULL · TKO · CARR · NVDA

Where Does COF Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

COF is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Capital One Financial Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Capital One Financial Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)'s intrinsic value at $150.12 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $86.89 to $309.37. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is COF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $215.67, 2 of 6 active models suggest COF may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $150.12, 30.4% below the current price of $215.67 — a consensus view that COF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Capital One Financial Corporation's business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for COF?

Capital One Financial Corporation's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on COF?

CirclFi analyzes COF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on COF?

Of the 6 models currently active on COF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $309.37 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $86.89. CirclFi's published fair value for COF is the median of that range, $150.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 148% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is COF a value trap in 2026?

Capital One Financial Corporation's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) has a median fair value of $150.12 — 30.4% below the current price of $215.67 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/COF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this COF valuation
  • Financial statements: Capital One Financial Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000927628) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for COF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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