The Western Union Company (WU) Fair Value 2026

WU · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (9/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Western Union Company (WU) trades at $7.21, versus a $22.45 median fair value across its 11 active models — 211.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 9/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $24.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
WU
Price
$7.21
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
9/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +326.4% upside with 76% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Western Union Company (WU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, The Western Union Company (WU) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $22.45, 211.4% above the current price of $7.21. Estimates range from $6.59 to $38.56. WU scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 9/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. WU’s +211.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +17.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Western Union Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WU?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.37 +238.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.74 +326.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $24.96 +246.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.71 +62.4%
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What Is WU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $6.59 to $38.56

CirclFi's 11 active models place The Western Union Company (WU) between $6.59 and $38.56 per share, a spread of 142% of the median. The median of that range — $22.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WU, against a current price of $7.21.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · PWERM
$6.59median $22.45$38.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$6.59
Most bullish modelPWERM$38.56
Model agreement10 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Western Union Company (WU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Western Union Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $22.45. At a current market price of $7.21, 10 of 11 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +211.4%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +434.8% (fair value: $38.56), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -8.6% ($6.59). The spread between these extremes — +443.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About WU?

11 of 13 models are currently active for WU. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WU is $22.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $24.37 on its own, implying +238.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WU Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, WU ranks #29 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

The Credit Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For The Western Union Company, metrics like CET1 capital ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is WU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WU a score of 9/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for The Western Union Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Western Union Company scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +443.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WU's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Western Union Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

CPSSConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc.QOC 7.5NNINelnet, Inc.QOC 7.4COFCapital One Financial CorporationQOC 7.5GDOTGreen Dot CorporationQOC 7.3OMFOneMain Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2PRAAPRA Group, Inc.QOC 6.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1MFINMedallion Financial Corp.QOC 8.1JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: CPSS · NNI · COF · GDOT · OMF · AFRM · PRAA · MA · MFIN · JFIN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WU?

7 companies across all industries closest to WU’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

TENBTenable Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4NROMNoble Roman's, Inc.QOC 7.4LAZLazard, Inc.QOC 7.4GOODGladstone Commercial CorporationQOC 7.4USFDUS Foods Holding Corp.QOC 7.4CXWCoreCivic, Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TENB · NROM · LAZ · GOOD · USFD · CXW · NVDA

Where Does WU Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

WU is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Western Union Company’s Valuation?

What is The Western Union Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Western Union Company (WU)'s intrinsic value at $22.45 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.59 to $38.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $24.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.21, 10 of 11 active models suggest WU may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $22.45, 211.4% above the current price of $7.21 — a consensus view that WU is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Western Union Company's business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for WU?

The Western Union Company's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WU?

CirclFi analyzes WU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WU?

Of the 11 models currently active on WU, PWERM is the most bullish at $38.56 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $6.59. CirclFi's published fair value for WU is the median of that range, $22.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 142% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WU a value trap in 2026?

The Western Union Company's Value Trap score is 9/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, The Western Union Company (WU) has a median fair value of $22.45 — 211.4% above the current price of $7.21 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WU valuation
  • Financial statements: The Western Union Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001365135) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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