What Is Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arm Holdings plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $81.77. Trading at its current price of $298.99, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -72.7%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $337.28 (+12.8%), versus Dynamic NAV at $3.89 (-98.7%). This +111.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About ARM?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ARM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ARM's intrinsic value at $33.22, implying -88.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ARM Rank in Semiconductors?
Among 9 Semiconductors stocks, ARM ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.0 signals below-average fundamentals.
The Semiconductors sector introduces analytical considerations specific to semiconductor company businesses. For Arm Holdings plc, metrics like wafer utilization rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is ARM a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ARM. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Arm Holdings plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Arm Holdings plc earns a quality score of 3.0/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +111.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ARM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ARM's 13 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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