Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Fair Value 2026

ARM · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Arm Holdings plc (ARM) trades at $255.21. QOC: 3.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARM
Price
$255.21
Quality Score
3.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.1/10 signals weak fundamentals

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARM?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($255.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $134.68 -47.2%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arm Holdings plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $134.68. Trading at its current price of $255.21, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 1 of 1 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -47.2%.

What Do the Models Say About ARM?

1 of 13 models are currently active for ARM. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARM Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, ARM ranks #63 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.1 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

The Semiconductors sector introduces analytical considerations specific to semiconductor company businesses. For Arm Holdings plc, metrics like wafer utilization rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ARM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARM a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Arm Holdings plc. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Arm Holdings plc earns a quality score of 3.1/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARM's 1 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arm Holdings plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

SIMOSilicon Motion Technology CorporationQOC 3.2TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd.QOC 2.7CBRSCerebras Systems Inc.QOC 3.7STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.QOC 2.6FABCFabric.AI, Inc.QOC 4.3WKEYWISeKey International Holding AGQOC 2.6MUMicron Technology, Inc.QOC 9.1POWIPower Integrations, Inc.QOC 7.5LEDSSemiLEDs CorporationQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: SIMO · TSEM · CBRS · STM · FABC · WKEY · MU · POWI · LEDS · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARM?

6 companies across all industries closest to ARM’s Quality of Company score of 3.1/10.

SETOSETO Holdings, Inc.QOC 3.1GYGYGame Your Game, Inc.QOC 3.1AAPIApple iSports Group, Inc.QOC 3.1GYROGyrodyne, LLCQOC 3.1SPTXSeaport Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.1TKTeekay Corporation Ltd.QOC 3.1

Read investment analysis: SETO · GYGY · AAPI · GYRO · SPTX · TK

Where Does ARM Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

ARM is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Arm Holdings plc’s Valuation?

What is Arm Holdings plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Arm Holdings plc (ARM). The Quality of Company score is 3.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $255.21, 0 of 1 active models suggest ARM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arm Holdings plc's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.1 mean for ARM?

Arm Holdings plc's QOC of 3.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARM?

CirclFi analyzes ARM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ARM a value trap in 2026?

Arm Holdings plc's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Arm Holdings plc (ARM) a Quality of Company score of 3.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARM valuation
  • Financial statements: Arm Holdings plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001973239) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARM as of ; valuations recomputed .