SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS) Fair Value 2026

LEDS · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS) trades at $1.98, versus a $1.29 median fair value across its 3 active models — 34.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.29.

Key Facts

Ticker
LEDS
Price
$1.98
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +275.5% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $1.29, 34.9% below the current price of $1.98. Estimates range from $1.24 to $7.43. LEDS scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LEDS’s -34.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SemiLEDs Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LEDS?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.29 -34.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.24 -37.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $7.43 +275.5%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is LEDS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $1.24 to $7.43

CirclFi's 3 active models place SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS) between $1.24 and $7.43 per share, a spread of 481% of the median. The median of that range — $1.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LEDS, against a current price of $1.98.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · FTNN
$1.24median $1.29$7.43
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$1.24
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$7.43
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LEDS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LEDS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SemiLEDs Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.29. Trading at $1.98, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -34.9%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $7.43 (+275.5%), versus RCMH-DCF at $1.24 (-37.6%). This +313.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LEDS?

3 of 13 models are currently active for LEDS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LEDS is $1.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.29 on its own, implying -34.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LEDS Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, LEDS ranks #45 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

SemiLEDs Corporation's positioning within the Semiconductors segment means that gross margin trajectory plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including process node advancement — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LEDS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LEDS a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for SemiLEDs Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, SemiLEDs Corporation earns a quality score of 6.6/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +313.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LEDS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LEDS's 3 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SemiLEDs Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

MXLMaxLinear, Inc.QOC 6.6INDIindie Semiconductor, Inc.QOC 6.3LASRnLIGHT, Inc.QOC 6.7QUIKQuickLogic CorporationQOC 6.2ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 6.7GSITGSI Technology, Inc.QOC 6.1SIMOSilicon Motion Technology CorporationQOC 3.2MUMicron Technology, Inc.QOC 9.1POWIPower Integrations, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: MXL · INDI · LASR · QUIK · ASX · GSIT · SIMO · MU · POWI · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LEDS?

6 companies across all industries closest to LEDS’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

AAMEAtlantic American CorporationQOC 6.6LMNDLemonade, Inc.QOC 6.6LAKELakeland Industries, Inc.QOC 6.6TULPBloomia Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6NTRBNutriband Inc.QOC 6.6WEAVWeave Communications, Inc.QOC 6.6

Read investment analysis: AAME · LMND · LAKE · TULP · NTRB · WEAV

Where Does LEDS Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

LEDS is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About SemiLEDs Corporation’s Valuation?

What is SemiLEDs Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS)'s intrinsic value at $1.29 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.24 to $7.43. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.29 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LEDS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.98, 1 of 3 active models suggest LEDS may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $1.29, 34.9% below the current price of $1.98 — a consensus view that LEDS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SemiLEDs Corporation's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for LEDS?

SemiLEDs Corporation's QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LEDS?

CirclFi analyzes LEDS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LEDS?

Of the 3 models currently active on LEDS, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $7.43 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $1.24. CirclFi's published fair value for LEDS is the median of that range, $1.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 481% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LEDS a value trap in 2026?

SemiLEDs Corporation's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, SemiLEDs Corporation (LEDS) has a median fair value of $1.29 — 34.9% below the current price of $1.98 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LEDS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LEDS valuation
  • Financial statements: SemiLEDs Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001333822) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LEDS as of ; valuations recomputed .