Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) Fair Value 2026

QFIN · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) trades at $9.17, versus a $49.75 median fair value across its 3 active models — 442.5% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
QFIN
Price
$9.17
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +481.1% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $49.75, 442.5% above the current price of $9.17. Estimates range from $17.62 to $53.29. QFIN scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. QFIN’s +442.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +17.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Qfin Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give QFIN?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.17)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $53.29 +481.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.62 +92.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $49.75 +442.5%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is QFIN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $17.62 to $53.29

CirclFi's 3 active models place Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) between $17.62 and $53.29 per share, a spread of 72% of the median. The median of that range — $49.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for QFIN, against a current price of $9.17.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · CUCE
$17.62median $49.75$53.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$17.62
Most bullish modelCUCE$53.29
Model agreement3 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on QFIN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Qfin Holdings, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $9.17. Based on our 13-model framework, Qfin Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $49.75 — representing +442.5% implied upside — with 3 out of 3 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: CUCE targets $53.29 (+481.1%), versus Markov DDM at $17.62 (+92.2%). This +388.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About QFIN?

3 of 13 models are currently active for QFIN. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for QFIN is $49.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does QFIN Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, QFIN ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places QFIN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

The Credit Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For Qfin Holdings, Inc., metrics like return on tangible equity provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is QFIN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns QFIN a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Qfin Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Qfin Holdings, Inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +388.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every QFIN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across QFIN's 3 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Qfin Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

VVisa Inc.QOC 9.0LXLexinFintech Holdings Ltd.QOC 9.0AXPAmerican Express CompanyQOC 9.1SYFSynchrony FinancialQOC 8.9MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1SEZLSezzle Inc.QOC 8.7OPRTOportun Financial CorporationQOC 7.9AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2FOAFinance of America Companies Inc.QOC 5.6JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: V · LX · AXP · SYF · MA · SEZL · OPRT · AFRM · FOA · JFIN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to QFIN?

7 companies across all industries closest to QFIN’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0LQDTLiquidity Services, Inc.QOC 9.0CHWYChewy, Inc.QOC 9.0IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.0IBEXIBEX LimitedQOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RPM · LQDT · CHWY · IMAX · BFST · IBEX · NVDA

Where Does QFIN Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

QFIN is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Qfin Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Qfin Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN)'s intrinsic value at $49.75 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $17.62 to $53.29. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is QFIN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.17, 3 of 3 active models suggest QFIN may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $49.75, 442.5% above the current price of $9.17 — a consensus view that QFIN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Qfin Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for QFIN?

Qfin Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on QFIN?

CirclFi analyzes QFIN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on QFIN?

Of the 3 models currently active on QFIN, CUCE is the most bullish at $53.29 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $17.62. CirclFi's published fair value for QFIN is the median of that range, $49.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 72% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is QFIN a value trap in 2026?

Qfin Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) has a median fair value of $49.75 — 442.5% above the current price of $9.17 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/QFIN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this QFIN valuation
  • Financial statements: Qfin Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001741530) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for QFIN as of ; valuations recomputed .