Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Fair Value 2026

TXN · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) trades at $266.54, versus a $104.82 median fair value across its 10 active models — 60.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXN
Price
$266.54
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +4.9% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $104.82, 60.7% below the current price of $266.54. Estimates range from $17.59 to $444.42. TXN scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TXN’s -60.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Texas Instruments Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TXN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($266.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.59 -93.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.35 -77.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $111.20 -58.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $279.64 +4.9%
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What Is TXN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $17.59 to $444.42

CirclFi's 10 active models place Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) between $17.59 and $444.42 per share, a spread of 407% of the median. The median of that range — $104.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TXN, against a current price of $266.54.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$17.59median $104.82$444.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$17.59
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$444.42
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TXN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TXN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Texas Instruments Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $104.82. Trading at $266.54, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -60.7%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +66.7% (fair value: $444.42), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -93.4% ($17.59). The spread between these extremes — +160.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TXN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TXN. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TXN is $104.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.59 on its own, implying -93.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXN Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, TXN ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places TXN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

Texas Instruments Incorporated's positioning within the Semiconductors segment means that inventory days plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automotive semiconductor content — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TXN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TXN a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Texas Instruments Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Texas Instruments Incorporated scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +160.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXN's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Texas Instruments Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

QRVOQorvo, Inc.QOC 8.3LSCCLattice Semiconductor CorporationQOC 8.1ALABAstera Labs, Inc.QOC 8.3SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.0MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.QOC 8.5MCHPMicrochip Technology IncorporatedQOC 8.0AIPArteris, Inc.QOC 7.1PRSOPeraso Inc.QOC 5.8LAESSEALSQ CorpQOC 1.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: QRVO · LSCC · ALAB · SWKS · MRVL · MCHP · AIP · PRSO · LAES · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TXN?

6 companies across all industries closest to TXN’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.QOC 8.2EPAMEPAM Systems, Inc.QOC 8.2ABEVAmbev S.A.QOC 8.2CNACNA Financial CorporationQOC 8.2CHEChemed CorporationQOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: FBRT · GRNT · EPAM · ABEV · CNA · CHE

Where Does TXN Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

TXN is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Texas Instruments Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Texas Instruments Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)'s intrinsic value at $104.82 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $17.59 to $444.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $266.54, 2 of 10 active models suggest TXN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $104.82, 60.7% below the current price of $266.54 — a consensus view that TXN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Texas Instruments Incorporated's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for TXN?

Texas Instruments Incorporated's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXN?

CirclFi analyzes TXN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TXN?

Of the 10 models currently active on TXN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $444.42 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $17.59. CirclFi's published fair value for TXN is the median of that range, $104.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 407% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TXN a value trap in 2026?

Texas Instruments Incorporated's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) has a median fair value of $104.82 — 60.7% below the current price of $266.54 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TXN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TXN valuation
  • Financial statements: Texas Instruments Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000097476) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TXN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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