Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) Fair Value 2026

LYG · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) trades at $5.92, versus a $5.13 median fair value across its 6 active models — 13.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LYG
Price
$5.92
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $5.13, 13.3% below the current price of $5.92. Estimates range from $4.49 to $9.77. LYG scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LYG’s -13.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lloyds Banking Group plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LYG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.49 -24.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.01 -15.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.84 -18.2%
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What Is LYG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $4.49 to $9.77

CirclFi's 6 active models place Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) between $4.49 and $9.77 per share, a spread of 103% of the median. The median of that range — $5.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LYG, against a current price of $5.92.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$4.49median $5.13$9.77
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$4.49
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$9.77
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LYG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LYG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lloyds Banking Group plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $5.13. Trading at its current price of $5.92, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -13.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $9.77 (+65.1%), versus EPV at $4.49 (-24.2%). This +89.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LYG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for LYG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LYG is $5.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LYG Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, LYG ranks #275 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Lloyds Banking Group plc's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LYG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LYG a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Lloyds Banking Group plc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lloyds Banking Group plc scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +89.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LYG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LYG's 6 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lloyds Banking Group plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

SHGShinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.QOC 7.4SRBKSR Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.4CACCamden National CorporationQOC 7.4CVBFCVB Financial Corp.QOC 7.3MRBKMeridian CorporationQOC 7.4BAPCredicorp Ltd.QOC 7.3TCBXThird Coast Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.8LOBLive Oak Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3SFBCSound Financial Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: SHG · SRBK · CAC · CVBF · MRBK · BAP · TCBX · LOB · SFBC · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LYG?

7 companies across all industries closest to LYG’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

NTRNutrien Ltd.QOC 7.4PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group IncorporatedQOC 7.4SNWVSANUWAVE Health, Inc.QOC 7.4EVRGEvergy, Inc.QOC 7.4SHLSShoals Technologies Group, Inc.QOC 7.4NPKNational Presto Industries, Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NTR · PEG · SNWV · EVRG · SHLS · NPK · NVDA

Where Does LYG Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

LYG is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lloyds Banking Group plc’s Valuation?

What is Lloyds Banking Group plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG)'s intrinsic value at $5.13 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.49 to $9.77. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LYG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.92, 1 of 6 active models suggest LYG may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $5.13, 13.3% below the current price of $5.92 — a consensus view that LYG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lloyds Banking Group plc's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for LYG?

Lloyds Banking Group plc's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LYG?

CirclFi analyzes LYG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LYG?

Of the 6 models currently active on LYG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $9.77 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $4.49. CirclFi's published fair value for LYG is the median of that range, $5.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 103% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LYG a value trap in 2026?

Lloyds Banking Group plc's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG) has a median fair value of $5.13 — 13.3% below the current price of $5.92 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LYG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LYG valuation
  • Financial statements: Lloyds Banking Group plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001160106) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LYG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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