River Financial Corporation (RVRF) Fair Value 2026

RVRF · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, River Financial Corporation (RVRF) trades at $46.61, versus a $54.04 median fair value across its 5 active models — 16.0% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RVRF
Price
$46.61
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +16.0% upside with 13% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is River Financial Corporation (RVRF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, River Financial Corporation (RVRF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $54.04, 16.0% above the current price of $46.61. Estimates range from $26.54 to $110.12. RVRF scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. RVRF’s +16.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy River Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RVRF?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $54.04 +16.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.54 -43.1%
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What Is RVRF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $26.54 to $110.12

CirclFi's 5 active models place River Financial Corporation (RVRF) between $26.54 and $110.12 per share, a spread of 155% of the median. The median of that range — $54.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RVRF, against a current price of $46.61.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$26.54median $54.04$110.12
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$26.54
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$110.12
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RVRF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RVRF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is River Financial Corporation (RVRF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, River Financial Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $54.04, suggesting a +16.0% median upside from the current price of $46.61. While 3 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $110.12 (+136.3%), versus Markov DDM at $26.54 (-43.1%). This +179.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RVRF?

5 of 13 models are currently active for RVRF. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RVRF is $54.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RVRF Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, RVRF ranks #61 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places RVRF in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

River Financial Corporation's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that cost-to-income ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including loan portfolio growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is RVRF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RVRF a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for River Financial Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, River Financial Corporation earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RVRF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RVRF's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy River Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

HBTHBT Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5OPHCOptimumBank Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5NICNicolet Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.5BWFGBankwell Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.5PFISPeoples Financial Services Corp.QOC 8.5ISBAIsabella Bank CorporationQOC 8.5OPBKOP BancorpQOC 8.1VBNKVersaBankQOC 7.7FNWBFirst Northwest BancorpQOC 6.4ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: HBT · OPHC · NIC · BWFG · PFIS · ISBA · OPBK · VBNK · FNWB · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RVRF?

7 companies across all industries closest to RVRF’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

INVHInvitation Homes Inc.QOC 8.5UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.QOC 8.5CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5OHIOmega Healthcare Investors, Inc.QOC 8.5CSCOCisco Systems, Inc.QOC 8.5YEXTYext, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INVH · UPS · CIG · OHI · CSCO · YEXT · NVDA

Where Does RVRF Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

RVRF is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About River Financial Corporation’s Valuation?

What is River Financial Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts River Financial Corporation (RVRF)'s intrinsic value at $54.04 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $26.54 to $110.12. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RVRF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.61, 3 of 5 active models suggest RVRF may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $54.04, 16.0% above the current price of $46.61 — a consensus view that RVRF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits River Financial Corporation's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for RVRF?

River Financial Corporation's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RVRF?

CirclFi analyzes RVRF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RVRF?

Of the 5 models currently active on RVRF, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $110.12 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $26.54. CirclFi's published fair value for RVRF is the median of that range, $54.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 155% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RVRF a value trap in 2026?

River Financial Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, River Financial Corporation (RVRF) has a median fair value of $54.04 — 16.0% above the current price of $46.61 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RVRF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RVRF valuation
  • Financial statements: River Financial Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001641601) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RVRF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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