American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Fair Value 2026

APEI · Education & Training Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) trades at $59.07, approximately 165% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $22.29. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
APEI
Price
$59.07
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($59.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $22.29 -62.3%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $26.87 -54.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $26.31 -55.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $57.57 -2.5%

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What Is American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American Public Education, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $28.71, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $59.07. With 11 out of 13 models flagging downside (-51.4% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $57.57 (-2.5%), versus Markov DDM at $9.47 (-84.0%). This +81.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About APEI?

13 of 13 models are currently active for APEI. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates APEI's intrinsic value at $22.29, implying -62.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APEI Rank in Education & Training Services?

Among 4 Education & Training Services stocks, APEI ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places APEI in the top tier.

American Public Education, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is APEI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APEI a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for American Public Education, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, American Public Education, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +81.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APEI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APEI's 13 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American Public Education, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Education & Training Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Education & Training Services stocks with 13-model coverage

AFYAAfya LimitedQOC 9.1AACGATA Creativity GlobalQOC 7.1AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. AmQOC 3.1

Read investment analysis: AFYA · AACG · AMBO

Frequently Asked Questions About American Public Education, Inc.

What is American Public Education, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $22.29. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APEI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $59.07, 0 of 13 active models suggest APEI may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American Public Education, Inc.'s business model in Education & Training Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for APEI?

American Public Education, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APEI?

CirclFi analyzes APEI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is APEI a value trap in 2026?

American Public Education, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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