American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Fair Value 2026

APEI · Education & Training Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) trades at $46.10, versus a $23.14 median fair value across its 11 active models — 49.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.20.

Key Facts

Ticker
APEI
Price
$46.10
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $23.14, 49.8% below the current price of $46.10. Estimates range from $2.93 to $62.81. APEI scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. APEI’s -49.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Education & Training Services sector median is -6.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy American Public Education, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give APEI?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.20 -17.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.14 -49.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $39.53 -14.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.24 -64.8%
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What Is APEI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.93 to $62.81

CirclFi's 11 active models place American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) between $2.93 and $62.81 per share, a spread of 259% of the median. The median of that range — $23.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for APEI, against a current price of $46.10.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$2.93median $23.14$62.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$2.93
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$62.81
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for APEI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on APEI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American Public Education, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.14, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $46.10. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-49.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $62.81 (+36.2%), versus Markov DDM at $2.93 (-93.7%). This +129.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About APEI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for APEI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for APEI is $23.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.20 on its own, implying -17.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APEI Rank in Education & Training Services?

Among 45 Education & Training Services stocks, APEI ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places APEI in the top tier.

American Public Education, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is APEI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APEI a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for American Public Education, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, American Public Education, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +129.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APEI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APEI's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American Public Education, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Education & Training Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Education & Training Services stocks with 13-model coverage

AFYAAfya LimitedQOC 8.5PRDOPerdoceo Education CorporationQOC 8.5STGSunlands Technology GroupQOC 8.6STRAStrategic Education, Inc.QOC 8.4IHiHuman Inc.QOC 8.6LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc.QOC 8.4COURCoursera, Inc.QOC 7.3PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc.QOC 6.0TALTAL Education GroupQOC 3.3LRNStride, Inc.QOC 9.5UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: AFYA · PRDO · STG · STRA · IH · LOPE · COUR · PXED · TAL · LRN · UTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to APEI?

7 companies across all industries closest to APEI’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.5HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5NICNicolet Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.5PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 8.5HRBH&R Block, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ROP · HAFN · NIC · PKG · PHM · HRB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About American Public Education, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is American Public Education, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)'s intrinsic value at $23.14 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.93 to $62.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.20 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APEI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.10, 1 of 11 active models suggest APEI may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $23.14, 49.8% below the current price of $46.10 — a consensus view that APEI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American Public Education, Inc.'s business model in Education & Training Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for APEI?

American Public Education, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APEI?

CirclFi analyzes APEI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on APEI?

Of the 11 models currently active on APEI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $62.81 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $2.93. CirclFi's published fair value for APEI is the median of that range, $23.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 259% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is APEI a value trap in 2026?

American Public Education, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) has a median fair value of $23.14 — 49.8% below the current price of $46.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/APEI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this APEI valuation
  • Financial statements: American Public Education, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001201792) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for APEI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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