Afya Limited (AFYA) Fair Value 2026

AFYA · Education & Training Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Afya Limited (AFYA) trades at $14.31, versus a $26.23 median fair value across its 8 active models — 83.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AFYA
Price
$14.31
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +217.5% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Afya Limited (AFYA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Afya Limited (AFYA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $26.23, 83.3% above the current price of $14.31. Estimates range from $15.35 to $63.69. AFYA scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AFYA’s +83.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Education & Training Services sector median is -6.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Afya Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AFYA?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $45.43 +217.5%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $45.43 +217.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.69 +44.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $15.35 +7.3%
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What Is AFYA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $15.35 to $63.69

CirclFi's 8 active models place Afya Limited (AFYA) between $15.35 and $63.69 per share, a spread of 184% of the median. The median of that range — $26.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AFYA, against a current price of $14.31.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · RCMH-DCF
$15.35median $26.23$63.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$15.35
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$63.69
Model agreement8 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AFYA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AFYA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Afya Limited (AFYA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Afya Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $26.23. At a current market price of $14.31, 8 of 8 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +83.3%. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +345.1% (fair value: $63.69), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at +7.3% ($15.35). The spread between these extremes — +337.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AFYA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for AFYA. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AFYA is $26.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AFYA Rank in Education & Training Services?

Among 45 Education & Training Services stocks, AFYA ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places AFYA in the top tier.

Afya Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AFYA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AFYA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Afya Limited. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Afya Limited is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +337.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AFYA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AFYA's 8 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Afya Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Education & Training Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Education & Training Services stocks with 13-model coverage

STGSunlands Technology GroupQOC 8.6APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.QOC 8.5IHiHuman Inc.QOC 8.6PRDOPerdoceo Education CorporationQOC 8.5LAURLaureate Education, Inc.QOC 8.8STRAStrategic Education, Inc.QOC 8.4DAOYoudao, Inc.QOC 7.4CHGGChegg, Inc.QOC 6.0XXITwenty One Capital, Inc.QOC 4.8LRNStride, Inc.QOC 9.5UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: STG · APEI · IH · PRDO · LAUR · STRA · DAO · CHGG · XXI · LRN · UTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AFYA?

7 companies across all industries closest to AFYA’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5LNGCheniere Energy, Inc.QOC 8.5BKRBaker Hughes CompanyQOC 8.5DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.QOC 8.5PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.QOC 8.5UMCUnited Microelectronics CorporationQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HTO · LNG · BKR · DMLP · PSMT · UMC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Afya Limited’s Valuation?

What is Afya Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Afya Limited (AFYA)'s intrinsic value at $26.23 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.35 to $63.69. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AFYA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.31, 8 of 8 active models suggest AFYA may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $26.23, 83.3% above the current price of $14.31 — a consensus view that AFYA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Afya Limited's business model in Education & Training Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for AFYA?

Afya Limited's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AFYA?

CirclFi analyzes AFYA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AFYA?

Of the 8 models currently active on AFYA, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $63.69 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $15.35. CirclFi's published fair value for AFYA is the median of that range, $26.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 184% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AFYA a value trap in 2026?

Afya Limited's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Afya Limited (AFYA) has a median fair value of $26.23 — 83.3% above the current price of $14.31 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AFYA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AFYA valuation
  • Financial statements: Afya Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001771007) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AFYA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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