New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) Fair Value 2026

EDU · Education & Training Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) trades at $57.11, versus a $41.47 median fair value across its 12 active models — 27.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $69.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
EDU
Price
$57.11
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +21.7% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $41.47, 27.4% below the current price of $57.11. Estimates range from $9.02 to $122.44. EDU scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. EDU’s -27.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Education & Training Services sector median is +8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EDU?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($57.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.52 +21.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.56 -67.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $48.02 -15.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $65.14 +14.1%
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What Is EDU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $9.02 to $122.44

CirclFi's 12 active models place New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) between $9.02 and $122.44 per share, a spread of 273% of the median. The median of that range — $41.47 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EDU, against a current price of $57.11.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$9.02median $41.47$122.44
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$9.02
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$122.44
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EDU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EDU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $41.47. Trading at $57.11, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.4%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $122.44 (+114.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $9.02 (-84.2%). This +198.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About EDU?

12 of 13 models are currently active for EDU. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EDU is $41.47 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $69.52 on its own, implying +21.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EDU Rank in Education & Training Services?

Among 46 Education & Training Services stocks, EDU ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places EDU in the top tier.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is EDU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EDU a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +198.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EDU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EDU's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Education & Training Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Education & Training Services stocks with 13-model coverage

LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc.QOC 8.4FCFranklin Covey Co.QOC 8.1STRAStrategic Education, Inc.QOC 8.4FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.0PRDOPerdoceo Education CorporationQOC 8.5LINCLincoln Educational Services CorporationQOC 7.6COE51Talk Online Education GroupQOC 6.6MYNDMynd.ai, Inc.QOC 5.5GNSGenius Group LimitedQOC 1.7LRNStride, Inc.QOC 9.5UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: LOPE · FC · STRA · FEDU · PRDO · LINC · COE · MYND · GNS · LRN · UTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EDU?

7 companies across all industries closest to EDU’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

SPNTSiriusPoint Ltd.QOC 8.2RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.2SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd.QOC 8.2IDXGInterpace Biosciences, Inc.QOC 8.2PJTPJT Partners Inc.QOC 8.2CNACNA Financial CorporationQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPNT · RRR · SHOO · IDXG · PJT · CNA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.’s Valuation?

What is New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU)'s intrinsic value at $41.47 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $9.02 to $122.44. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $69.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EDU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $57.11, 4 of 12 active models suggest EDU may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $41.47, 27.4% below the current price of $57.11 — a consensus view that EDU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.'s business model in Education & Training Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for EDU?

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EDU?

CirclFi analyzes EDU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EDU?

Of the 12 models currently active on EDU, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $122.44 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $9.02. CirclFi's published fair value for EDU is the median of that range, $41.47, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 273% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EDU a value trap in 2026?

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) has a median fair value of $41.47 — 27.4% below the current price of $57.11 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EDU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EDU valuation

Market data for EDU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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