Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Fair Value 2026

ARQT · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) trades at $27.78, approximately 428% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $5.26. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARQT
Price
$27.78
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $4.48, 83.9% below the current price of $27.78. Estimates range from $0.66 to $26.79. ARQT scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($27.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $5.26 -81.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $2.48 -91.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $5.76 -79.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $11.63 -58.2%

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What Is Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.03. Trading at its current price of $27.78, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -74.7%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $26.79 (-3.5%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.66 (-97.6%). This +94.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ARQT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ARQT. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates ARQT's intrinsic value at $5.26, implying -81.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARQT Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 76 Biotechnology stocks, ARQT ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including gene therapy and cell therapy innovation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ARQT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARQT a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARQT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARQT's 13 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ADMAADMA Biologics IncQOC 10.0AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals IncQOC 9.5ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.4ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3ACRSAclaris Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc.QOC 7.1ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings QOC 7.0ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: ADMA · AUPH · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.

What is Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $5.26. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARQT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $27.78, 0 of 13 active models suggest ARQT may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $4.48, 83.9% below the current price of $27.78 — a consensus view that ARQT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for ARQT?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARQT?

CirclFi analyzes ARQT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ARQT a value trap in 2026?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) has a median fair value of $4.48 — 83.9% below the current price of $27.78 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARQT/ · Methodology

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