Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Fair Value 2026

BMBL · Internet Content & Information ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (48/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Bumble Inc. (BMBL) trades at $2.71, versus a $11.88 median fair value across its 5 active models — 338.4% above the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 48/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BMBL
Price
$2.71
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
48/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +372.6% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 48 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Bumble Inc. (BMBL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $11.88, 338.4% above the current price of $2.71. Estimates range from $5.45 to $13.56. BMBL scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 48/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BMBL’s +338.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Internet Content & Information sector median is -19.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Bumble Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BMBL?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $12.81 +372.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.88 +338.4%
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What Is BMBL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $5.45 to $13.56

CirclFi's 5 active models place Bumble Inc. (BMBL) between $5.45 and $13.56 per share, a spread of 68% of the median. The median of that range — $11.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BMBL, against a current price of $2.71.

Low · PWERMHigh · Regime Cross
$5.45median $11.88$13.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelPWERM$5.45
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$13.56
Model agreement5 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BMBL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Bumble Inc.. Trading at $2.71 against an estimated intrinsic value of $11.88, 5 of 5 active models flag meaningful upside of +338.4% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $13.56 (+400.4%), while PWERM — the most conservative — estimates $5.45 (+101.1%). This +299.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bumble Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BMBL?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BMBL. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BMBL is $11.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BMBL Rank in Internet Content & Information?

Among 77 Internet Content & Information stocks, BMBL ranks #39 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Internet Content & Information Stocks →

Within the Internet Content & Information space, Bumble Inc. competes in an environment where gross margin profile often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BMBL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BMBL a score of 48/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Bumble Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Bumble Inc. is rated at 6.5/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +299.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BMBL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BMBL's 5 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bumble Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Content & Information Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Content & Information stocks with 13-model coverage

BIDUBaidu, Inc.QOC 6.5RUMRUM Group Inc.QOC 6.5ZIPZipRecruiter, Inc.QOC 6.5ZHZhihu Inc.QOC 6.5BMTMBright Mountain Media, Inc.QOC 6.6SJScienjoy Holding CorporationQOC 6.3LVOLiveOne, Inc.QOC 5.5CBMJConservative Broadcast Media & Journalism Inc.QOC 2.2TBLATaboola.com Ltd.QOC 7.8GOOGAlphabet Inc.QOC 9.6METAMeta Platforms, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BIDU · RUM · ZIP · ZH · BMTM · SJ · LVO · CBMJ · TBLA · GOOG · META

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BMBL?

7 companies across all industries closest to BMBL’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

SOARVolato Group, Inc.QOC 6.5GFLGFL Environmental Inc.QOC 6.5BSBRBanco Santander (Brasil) S.A.QOC 6.5IEHCIEH CorporationQOC 6.5HUYAHUYA Inc.QOC 6.5FBLAFB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SOAR · GFL · BSBR · IEHC · HUYA · FBLA · NVDA

Where Does BMBL Sit in CirclFi's Internet Content & Information Rankings?

BMBL is ranked against every other Internet Content & Information stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Internet Content & Information stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Bumble Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Bumble Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Bumble Inc. (BMBL)'s intrinsic value at $11.88 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.45 to $13.56. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BMBL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.71, 5 of 5 active models suggest BMBL may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $11.88, 338.4% above the current price of $2.71 — a consensus view that BMBL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bumble Inc.'s business model in Internet Content & Information.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for BMBL?

Bumble Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BMBL?

CirclFi analyzes BMBL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BMBL?

Of the 5 models currently active on BMBL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $13.56 per share, and PWERM is the most bearish at $5.45. CirclFi's published fair value for BMBL is the median of that range, $11.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 68% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BMBL a value trap in 2026?

Bumble Inc.'s Value Trap score is 48/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Bumble Inc. (BMBL) has a median fair value of $11.88 — 338.4% above the current price of $2.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BMBL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BMBL valuation
  • Financial statements: Bumble Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001830043) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BMBL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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