Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) Fair Value 2026

DJT · Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) trades at $9.57. QOC: 5.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DJT
Price
$9.57
Quality Score
5.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $0.89, 90.7% below the current price of $9.57. Estimates range from $0.01 to $9.39. DJT scores 5.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Trump Media & Technology Group Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.49 -74.0%
FTNN Topology
High Conviction
$4.09 -57.3%
Dynamic NAV
High Conviction
$0.89 -90.7%
RCMH-DCF
High Conviction
$0.81 -91.5%

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What Is Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Trump Media & Technology Group 's intrinsic value is estimated at $2.22. Trading at its current price of $9.57, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -76.8%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at -1.9% (fair value: $9.39), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -99.9% ($0.01). The spread between these extremes — +98.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, FTNN lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DJT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for DJT. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DJT Rank in Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.?

Among 75 Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. stocks, DJT ranks #55 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. Stocks →

Trump Media & Technology Group operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is DJT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DJT a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Trump Media & Technology Group . Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Trump Media & Technology Group scores 5.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +98.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DJT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DJT's 9 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Trump Media & Technology Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: GOOG · GOOGL · TTD · BZ · BIDU

See all Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Trump Media & Technology Group

What is Trump Media & Technology Group 's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DJT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.57, 0 of 9 active models suggest DJT may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $0.89, 90.7% below the current price of $9.57 — a consensus view that DJT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Trump Media & Technology Group 's business model in Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc..

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.2 mean for DJT?

Trump Media & Technology Group 's QOC of 5.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DJT?

CirclFi analyzes DJT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DJT a value trap in 2026?

Trump Media & Technology Group 's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) has a median fair value of $0.89 — 90.7% below the current price of $9.57 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DJT/ · Methodology

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