Aterian, Inc. (ATER) Fair Value 2026

ATER · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Aterian, Inc. (ATER) trades at $0.39, versus a $1.23 median fair value across its 3 active models — 213.6% above the current price. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATER
Price
$0.39
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Dynamic NAV suggests +419.1% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Aterian, Inc. (ATER) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Aterian, Inc. (ATER) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $1.23, 213.6% above the current price of $0.39. Estimates range from $0.74 to $2.03. ATER scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ATER’s +213.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances sector median is -13.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aterian, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ATER?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.74 +88.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.03 +419.1%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.23 +213.6%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is ATER's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.74 to $2.03

CirclFi's 3 active models place Aterian, Inc. (ATER) between $0.74 and $2.03 per share, a spread of 106% of the median. The median of that range — $1.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ATER, against a current price of $0.39.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Dynamic NAV
$0.74median $1.23$2.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.74
Most bullish modelDynamic NAV$2.03
Model agreement3 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ATER. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ATER, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aterian, Inc. (ATER) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Aterian, Inc.. Trading at $0.39 against an estimated intrinsic value of $1.23, 3 of 3 active models flag meaningful upside of +213.6% at the median. The most optimistic model, Dynamic NAV, places fair value at $2.03 (+419.1%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.74 (+88.2%). This +330.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aterian, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ATER?

3 of 13 models are currently active for ATER. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ATER is $1.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATER Rank in Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances?

Among 34 Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, ATER ranks #31 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Aterian, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ATER a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATER a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Aterian, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aterian, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.3/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +330.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATER valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATER's 3 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aterian, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks with 13-model coverage

FGIFGI Industries Ltd.QOC 5.3PRPLPurple Innovation, Inc.QOC 5.2NTZNatuzzi S.p.A.QOC 5.6NCLNorthann CorpQOC 4.9MWYNMarwynn Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.6SNTWSummit Networks Inc.QOC 4.5SNSharkNinja, Inc.QOC 8.4MBCMasterBrand, Inc.QOC 7.8LCUTLifetime Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc.QOC 8.7FLXSFlexsteel Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: FGI · PRPL · NTZ · NCL · MWYN · SNTW · SN · MBC · LCUT · ALH · FLXS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ATER?

7 companies across all industries closest to ATER’s Quality of Company score of 5.3/10.

ANGHAnghami Inc.QOC 5.3ALTIAlTi Global, Inc.QOC 5.3NRDEStark Novus Financial Inc.QOC 5.3IFRXInflaRx N.V.QOC 5.3DJTTrump Media & Technology Group Corp.QOC 5.3MAZEMaze Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ANGH · ALTI · NRDE · IFRX · DJT · MAZE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aterian, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Aterian, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aterian, Inc. (ATER)'s intrinsic value at $1.23 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.74 to $2.03. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATER overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.39, 3 of 3 active models suggest ATER may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $1.23, 213.6% above the current price of $0.39 — a consensus view that ATER is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aterian, Inc.'s business model in Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for ATER?

Aterian, Inc.'s QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATER?

CirclFi analyzes ATER with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ATER?

Of the 3 models currently active on ATER, Dynamic NAV is the most bullish at $2.03 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.74. CirclFi's published fair value for ATER is the median of that range, $1.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 106% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ATER a value trap in 2026?

Aterian, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Aterian, Inc. (ATER) has a median fair value of $1.23 — 213.6% above the current price of $0.39 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ATER/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ATER valuation
  • Financial statements: Aterian, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001757715) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ATER as of ; valuations recomputed .