Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) Fair Value 2026

DNUT · Grocery Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) trades at $3.47, versus a $5.24 median fair value across its 3 active models — 51.0% above the current price. QOC: 5.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DNUT
Price
$3.47
Quality Score
5.2/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +123.0% upside with 30% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $5.24, 51.0% above the current price of $3.47. Estimates range from $1.46 to $7.74. DNUT scores 5.2/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DNUT’s +51.0% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Krispy Kreme, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DNUT?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $1.46 -57.9%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $7.74 +123.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $5.24 +51.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is DNUT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $1.46 to $7.74

CirclFi's 3 active models place Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) between $1.46 and $7.74 per share, a spread of 120% of the median. The median of that range — $5.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DNUT, against a current price of $3.47.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$1.46median $5.24$7.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.46
Most bullish modelPWERM$7.74
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DNUT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DNUT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Krispy Kreme, Inc. at $3.47. With an estimated intrinsic value of $5.24 and 2 of 3 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +51.0%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $7.74 (+123.0%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $1.46 (-57.9%). This +180.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DNUT?

3 of 13 models are currently active for DNUT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DNUT is $5.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DNUT Rank in Grocery Stores?

Among 12 Grocery Stores stocks, DNUT ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Krispy Kreme, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is DNUT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DNUT a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Krispy Kreme, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Krispy Kreme, Inc. is rated at 5.2/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +180.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DNUT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DNUT's 3 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Krispy Kreme, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Grocery Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Grocery Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.QOC 8.6SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.QOC 8.2WMKWeis Markets, Inc.QOC 7.6DDLDingdong (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.6KRThe Kroger Co.QOC 7.6ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.QOC 7.5MSSMaison Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp.QOC 6.5VHUBVenHub Global, Inc.QOC 5.1YSWYYesway, Inc.QOC 4.9HCWCHealthy Choice Wellness Corp.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: NGVC · SFM · WMK · DDL · KR · ACI · MSS · GO · VHUB · YSWY · HCWC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DNUT?

7 companies across all industries closest to DNUT’s Quality of Company score of 5.2/10.

VIPVulcan Infrastructure and Power Inc.QOC 5.2EVFMEvofem Biosciences, Inc.QOC 5.2STNEStoneCo Ltd.QOC 5.2HVIIHennessy Capital Investment Corp. VIIQOC 5.2INMInMed Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 5.2VCNXVaccinex, Inc.QOC 5.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VIP · EVFM · STNE · HVII · INM · VCNX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Krispy Kreme, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT)'s intrinsic value at $5.24 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.46 to $7.74. The Quality of Company score is 5.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DNUT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.47, 2 of 3 active models suggest DNUT may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $5.24, 51.0% above the current price of $3.47 — a consensus view that DNUT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s business model in Grocery Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.2 mean for DNUT?

Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s QOC of 5.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DNUT?

CirclFi analyzes DNUT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DNUT?

Of the 3 models currently active on DNUT, PWERM is the most bullish at $7.74 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $1.46. CirclFi's published fair value for DNUT is the median of that range, $5.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 120% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DNUT a value trap in 2026?

Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) has a median fair value of $5.24 — 51.0% above the current price of $3.47 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DNUT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DNUT valuation
  • Financial statements: Krispy Kreme, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001857154) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DNUT as of ; valuations recomputed .