Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Fair Value 2026

NBIS · Internet Content & Information ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) trades at $218.48, versus a $17.41 median fair value across its 7 active models — 92.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.31.

Key Facts

Ticker
NBIS
Price
$218.48
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $17.41, 92.0% below the current price of $218.48. Estimates range from $8.84 to $36.19. NBIS scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NBIS’s -92.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Internet Content & Information sector median is -19.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nebius Group N.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NBIS?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($218.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $12.31 -94.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.41 -92.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $22.12 -89.9%
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What Is NBIS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $8.84 to $36.19

CirclFi's 7 active models place Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) between $8.84 and $36.19 per share, a spread of 157% of the median. The median of that range — $17.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NBIS, against a current price of $218.48.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$8.84median $17.41$36.19
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.84
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$36.19
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NBIS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NBIS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nebius Group N.V.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $17.41. Trading at its current price of $218.48, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -92.0%.

What Do the Models Say About NBIS?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NBIS. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NBIS is $17.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.31 on its own, implying -94.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NBIS Rank in Internet Content & Information?

Among 77 Internet Content & Information stocks, NBIS ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Internet Content & Information Stocks →

The Internet Content & Information sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For Nebius Group N.V., metrics like rule of 40 score provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NBIS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NBIS a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Nebius Group N.V.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nebius Group N.V. scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+12.5% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NBIS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NBIS's 7 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nebius Group N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Content & Information Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Content & Information stocks with 13-model coverage

BODIThe Beachbody Company, Inc.QOC 6.7BMTMBright Mountain Media, Inc.QOC 6.6BOTXBOTXQOC 6.7ZIPZipRecruiter, Inc.QOC 6.5NXDRNextdoor Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.7BIDUBaidu, Inc.QOC 6.5SLESuper League Enterprise, Inc.QOC 5.8ELREYinfu Gold CorporationQOC 3.1TMETencent Music Entertainment GroupQOC 8.0GOOGAlphabet Inc.QOC 9.6METAMeta Platforms, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BODI · BMTM · BOTX · ZIP · NXDR · BIDU · SLE · ELRE · TME · GOOG · META

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NBIS?

7 companies across all industries closest to NBIS’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

ONTOnterris, Inc.QOC 6.6BKVBKV CorporationQOC 6.6XMTRXometry, Inc.QOC 6.6FOXFFox Factory Holding Corp.QOC 6.6MYOMyomo, Inc.QOC 6.6HELEHelen of Troy LimitedQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ONT · BKV · XMTR · FOXF · MYO · HELE · NVDA

Where Does NBIS Sit in CirclFi's Internet Content & Information Rankings?

NBIS is ranked against every other Internet Content & Information stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Internet Content & Information stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nebius Group N.V.’s Valuation?

What is Nebius Group N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)'s intrinsic value at $17.41 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.84 to $36.19. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.31 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NBIS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $218.48, 0 of 7 active models suggest NBIS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $17.41, 92.0% below the current price of $218.48 — a consensus view that NBIS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nebius Group N.V.'s business model in Internet Content & Information.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for NBIS?

Nebius Group N.V.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NBIS?

CirclFi analyzes NBIS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NBIS?

Of the 7 models currently active on NBIS, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $36.19 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $8.84. CirclFi's published fair value for NBIS is the median of that range, $17.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 157% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NBIS a value trap in 2026?

Nebius Group N.V.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has a median fair value of $17.41 — 92.0% below the current price of $218.48 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NBIS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NBIS valuation
  • Financial statements: Nebius Group N.V. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001513845) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NBIS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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