The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Fair Value 2026

TTD · Advertising Agencies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) trades at $13.42, versus a $19.05 median fair value across its 10 active models — 41.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.41.

Key Facts

Ticker
TTD
Price
$13.42
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +186.2% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $19.05, 41.9% above the current price of $13.42. Estimates range from $3.74 to $38.41. TTD scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TTD’s +41.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Advertising Agencies sector median is +3.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Trade Desk, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TTD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.41 +186.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.91 +33.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $20.18 +50.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.59 -21.1%
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What Is TTD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.74 to $38.41

CirclFi's 10 active models place The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) between $3.74 and $38.41 per share, a spread of 182% of the median. The median of that range — $19.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TTD, against a current price of $13.42.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$3.74median $19.05$38.41
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.74
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$38.41
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TTD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TTD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Trade Desk, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $19.05, suggesting a +41.9% median upside from the current price of $13.42. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $38.41 (+186.2%), versus ML-RIV at $3.74 (-72.1%). This +258.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TTD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TTD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TTD is $19.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.41 on its own, implying +186.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TTD Rank in Advertising Agencies?

Among 48 Advertising Agencies stocks, TTD ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places TTD in the top tier.

The Trade Desk, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TTD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TTD a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The Trade Desk, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, The Trade Desk, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +258.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TTD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TTD's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Trade Desk, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Advertising Agencies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Advertising Agencies stocks with 13-model coverage

QNSTQuinStreet, Inc.QOC 9.0MGNIMagnite, Inc.QOC 8.8APPAppLovin CorporationQOC 9.5DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7YDKGYueda Digital HoldingQOC 2.3KRKR36Kr Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5OMCOmnicom Group Inc.QOC 6.8SPTYSpecificity, Inc.QOC 5.5FCCIEyeonix AIQ, Inc.QOC 4.3

Read investment analysis: QNST · MGNI · APP · DV · YDKG · KRKR · OMC · SPTY · FCCI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TTD?

7 companies across all industries closest to TTD’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

TPBTurning Point Brands, Inc.QOC 8.8TWLOTwilio Inc.QOC 8.8SNPSSynopsys, Inc.QOC 8.8COLLCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.QOC 8.8INGRIngredion IncorporatedQOC 8.8EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TPB · TWLO · SNPS · COLL · INGR · EOG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Trade Desk, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Trade Desk, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)'s intrinsic value at $19.05 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.74 to $38.41. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.41 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TTD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.42, 7 of 10 active models suggest TTD may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $19.05, 41.9% above the current price of $13.42 — a consensus view that TTD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Trade Desk, Inc.'s business model in Advertising Agencies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for TTD?

The Trade Desk, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TTD?

CirclFi analyzes TTD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TTD?

Of the 10 models currently active on TTD, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $38.41 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.74. CirclFi's published fair value for TTD is the median of that range, $19.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 182% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TTD a value trap in 2026?

The Trade Desk, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) has a median fair value of $19.05 — 41.9% above the current price of $13.42 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TTD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TTD valuation
  • Financial statements: The Trade Desk, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001671933) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TTD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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