Applovin Corporation (APP) Fair Value 2026

APP · Advertising Agencies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Applovin Corporation (APP) trades at $442.85, approximately 928% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $43.06. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
APP
Price
$442.85
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 10.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($442.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $43.06 -90.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $9.32 -97.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $72.67 -83.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $136.08 -69.3%

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What Is Applovin Corporation (APP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Applovin Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $185.44, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $442.85. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-58.1% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $726.13 (+64.0%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $9.32 (-97.9%). This +161.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Applovin Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About APP?

12 of 13 models are currently active for APP. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates APP's intrinsic value at $43.06, implying -90.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APP Rank in Advertising Agencies?

Among 3 Advertising Agencies stocks, APP ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places APP in the top tier.

Applovin Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is APP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APP a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Applovin Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Applovin Corporation is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +161.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APP's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Applovin Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Advertising Agencies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Advertising Agencies stocks with 13-model coverage

ACCSACCESS Newswire Inc.QOC 7.3ADVAdvantage Solutions Inc.QOC 5.6

Read investment analysis: ACCS · ADV

Frequently Asked Questions About Applovin Corporation

What is Applovin Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Applovin Corporation (APP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $43.06. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $442.85, 1 of 12 active models suggest APP may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Applovin Corporation's business model in Advertising Agencies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for APP?

Applovin Corporation's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APP?

CirclFi analyzes APP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is APP a value trap in 2026?

Applovin Corporation's Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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