Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) Fair Value 2026

ADV · Advertising Agencies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) trades at $33.43, versus a $75.86 median fair value across its 7 active models — 126.9% above the current price. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.92.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADV
Price
$33.43
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +135.4% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $75.86, 126.9% above the current price of $33.43. Estimates range from $9.92 to $180.59. ADV scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ADV’s +126.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Advertising Agencies sector median is +3.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Advantage Solutions Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADV?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.92 -70.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $78.70 +135.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $75.86 +126.9%
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What Is ADV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $9.92 to $180.59

CirclFi's 7 active models place Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) between $9.92 and $180.59 per share, a spread of 225% of the median. The median of that range — $75.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ADV, against a current price of $33.43.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · FTNN
$9.92median $75.86$180.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$9.92
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$180.59
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ADV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ADV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Advantage Solutions Inc. at $33.43. With an estimated intrinsic value of $75.86 and 5 of 7 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +126.9%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $180.59 (+440.2%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $9.92 (-70.3%). This +510.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Advantage Solutions Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ADV?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ADV. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ADV is $75.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.92 on its own, implying -70.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADV Rank in Advertising Agencies?

Among 48 Advertising Agencies stocks, ADV ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Advantage Solutions Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ADV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADV a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Advantage Solutions Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Advantage Solutions Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +510.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADV's 7 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Advantage Solutions Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Advertising Agencies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Advertising Agencies stocks with 13-model coverage

HAFGHolistic Asset Finance Group Co., Ltd.QOC 5.9MCHXMarchex, Inc.QOC 5.8TDICDreamland LimitedQOC 5.9STFSStar Fashion Culture Holdings LimitedQOC 5.7TSQTownsquare Media, Inc.QOC 6.3SPTYSpecificity, Inc.QOC 5.5CRWECrown Equity Holdings Inc.QOC 4.5YDKGYueda Digital HoldingQOC 2.3HFUSHartford Creative Group, Inc.QOC 7.5APPAppLovin CorporationQOC 9.5QNSTQuinStreet, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: HAFG · MCHX · TDIC · STFS · TSQ · SPTY · CRWE · YDKG · HFUS · APP · QNST

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADV?

7 companies across all industries closest to ADV’s Quality of Company score of 5.8/10.

RXTRackspace Technology, Inc.QOC 5.8UMEWUMeWorld Inc.QOC 5.8ATGLAlpha Technology Group LimitedQOC 5.8CBDYTarget Group Inc.QOC 5.8NKTRNektar TherapeuticsQOC 5.8GLXYGalaxy DigitalQOC 5.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RXT · UMEW · ATGL · CBDY · NKTR · GLXY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Advantage Solutions Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Advantage Solutions Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV)'s intrinsic value at $75.86 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.92 to $180.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.92 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.43, 5 of 7 active models suggest ADV may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $75.86, 126.9% above the current price of $33.43 — a consensus view that ADV is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Advantage Solutions Inc.'s business model in Advertising Agencies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for ADV?

Advantage Solutions Inc.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADV?

CirclFi analyzes ADV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ADV?

Of the 7 models currently active on ADV, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $180.59 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $9.92. CirclFi's published fair value for ADV is the median of that range, $75.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 225% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ADV a value trap in 2026?

Advantage Solutions Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) has a median fair value of $75.86 — 126.9% above the current price of $33.43 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADV valuation
  • Financial statements: Advantage Solutions Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001776661) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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