Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) Fair Value 2026

GCBC · Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) trades at $32.84, approximately 38% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $53.19. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GCBC
Price
$32.84
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +62.0% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$53.19 +62.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$17.31 -47.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$35.36 +7.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$49.93 +52.0%

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What Is Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Greene County Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $37.98, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $32.84. With an average implied return of +15.7% across a split 6–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +242.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +158.2% (fair value: $84.80), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -84.6% ($5.06). The spread between these extremes — +242.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GCBC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for GCBC. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GCBC's intrinsic value at $53.19, implying +62.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GCBC Rank in Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered?

Among 22 Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered stocks, GCBC ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places GCBC in the top tier.

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GCBC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GCBC a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Greene County Bancorp, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. is rated at 8.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +242.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GCBC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GCBC's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Greene County Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Greene County Bancorp, Inc.

What is Greene County Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $53.19. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GCBC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.84, 6 of 12 active models suggest GCBC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Greene County Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for GCBC?

Greene County Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GCBC?

CirclFi analyzes GCBC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GCBC a value trap in 2026?

Greene County Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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