Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) Fair Value 2026

ARDX · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) trades at $3.82, versus a $1.52 median fair value across its 3 active models — 60.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARDX
Price
$3.82
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $1.52, 60.1% below the current price of $3.82. Estimates range from $1.21 to $1.53. ARDX scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ARDX’s -60.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ardelyx, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARDX?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $1.53 -60.1%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.52 -60.1%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $1.21 -68.4%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is ARDX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $1.21 to $1.53

CirclFi's 3 active models place Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) between $1.21 and $1.53 per share, a spread of 21% of the median. The median of that range — $1.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARDX, against a current price of $3.82.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$1.21median $1.52$1.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$1.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.53
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on ARDX. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARDX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ardelyx, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.52, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $3.82. With 3 out of 3 models flagging downside (-60.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About ARDX?

3 of 13 models are currently active for ARDX. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ARDX is $1.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARDX Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, ARDX ranks #86 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Ardelyx, Inc. competes in an environment where partnership revenue often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ARDX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARDX a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Ardelyx, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ardelyx, Inc. is rated at 6.5/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

Models cluster within a tight range (+8.3% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARDX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARDX's 3 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ardelyx, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ASNDAscendis Pharma A/SQOC 6.5FBIOFortress Biotech, Inc.QOC 6.5ZVRAZevra Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5RXRXRecursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.5VIRVir Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 6.5SNDXSyndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.5PULMPulmatrix, Inc.QOC 5.4CBIOCrescent Biopharma, Inc.QOC 4.7OCEAOcean Biomedical, Inc.QOC 3.8EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: ASND · FBIO · ZVRA · RXRX · VIR · SNDX · PULM · CBIO · OCEA · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARDX?

6 companies across all industries closest to ARDX’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

FLRFluor CorporationQOC 6.5STEMStem, Inc.QOC 6.5CRMTAmerica's Car-Mart, Inc.QOC 6.5HYHyster-Yale, Inc.QOC 6.5PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FLR · STEM · CRMT · HY · PLAY · NVDA

Where Does ARDX Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ARDX is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ardelyx, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ardelyx, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX)'s intrinsic value at $1.52 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.21 to $1.53. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARDX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.82, 0 of 3 active models suggest ARDX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $1.52, 60.1% below the current price of $3.82 — a consensus view that ARDX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ardelyx, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for ARDX?

Ardelyx, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARDX?

CirclFi analyzes ARDX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARDX?

Of the 3 models currently active on ARDX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1.53 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $1.21. CirclFi's published fair value for ARDX is the median of that range, $1.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 21% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARDX a value trap in 2026?

Ardelyx, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) has a median fair value of $1.52 — 60.1% below the current price of $3.82 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARDX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARDX valuation
  • Financial statements: Ardelyx, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001437402) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARDX as of ; valuations recomputed .