Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Fair Value 2026

WTFC · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) trades at $162.62, approximately 159% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $62.70. QOC: 3.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
WTFC
Price
$162.62
Quality Score
3.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +14.0% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $129.64, 20.3% below the current price of $162.62. Estimates range from $8.12 to $663.93. WTFC scores 3.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Wintrust Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($162.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$62.70 -61.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$96.65 -40.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$185.35 +14.0%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$156.55 -3.7%

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What Is Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Wintrust Financial Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $181.77. Trading at $162.62, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +11.8%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $663.93 (+308.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $8.12 (-95.0%). This +403.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About WTFC?

13 of 13 models are currently active for WTFC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates WTFC's intrinsic value at $62.70, implying -61.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WTFC Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 166 State Commercial Banks stocks, WTFC ranks #160 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.7 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

The State Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For Wintrust Financial Corporation, metrics like deposit growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is WTFC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WTFC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Wintrust Financial Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Wintrust Financial Corporation scores 3.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +403.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WTFC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WTFC's 13 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Wintrust Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BSVN · OFG · CZNC · NPB · UNTY

See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Wintrust Financial Corporation

What is Wintrust Financial Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $62.70. The Quality of Company score is 3.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WTFC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $162.62, 3 of 13 active models suggest WTFC may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $129.64, 20.3% below the current price of $162.62 — a consensus view that WTFC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Wintrust Financial Corporation's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.7 mean for WTFC?

Wintrust Financial Corporation's QOC of 3.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WTFC?

CirclFi analyzes WTFC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is WTFC a value trap in 2026?

Wintrust Financial Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) has a median fair value of $129.64 — 20.3% below the current price of $162.62 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WTFC/ · Methodology

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