Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) Fair Value 2026

AWX · Waste Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) trades at $2.70, versus a $5.94 median fair value across its 7 active models — 120.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AWX
Price
$2.70
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +289.4% upside with 9% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $5.94, 120.1% above the current price of $2.70. Estimates range from $2.25 to $15.60. AWX scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AWX’s +120.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Avalon Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AWX?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.51 +289.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.26 +94.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.88 +43.6%
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What Is AWX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $2.25 to $15.60

CirclFi's 7 active models place Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) between $2.25 and $15.60 per share, a spread of 225% of the median. The median of that range — $5.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AWX, against a current price of $2.70.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$2.25median $5.94$15.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.25
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$15.60
Model agreement6 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AWX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AWX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Avalon Holdings Corporation. Trading at $2.70 against an estimated intrinsic value of $5.94, 6 of 7 active models flag meaningful upside of +120.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $15.60 (+477.6%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $2.25 (-16.8%). This +494.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Avalon Holdings Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AWX?

7 of 13 models are currently active for AWX. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AWX is $5.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AWX Rank in Waste Management?

Among 24 Waste Management stocks, AWX ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places AWX in the top tier.

Avalon Holdings Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AWX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AWX a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Avalon Holdings Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avalon Holdings Corporation scores 8.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +494.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AWX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AWX's 7 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Avalon Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Waste Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Waste Management stocks with 13-model coverage

RSGRepublic Services, Inc.QOC 8.6WMWaste Management, Inc.QOC 8.0WCNWaste Connections, Inc.QOC 8.7YDDLOne and one Green Technologies. IncQOC 7.3CLHClean Harbors, Inc.QOC 8.9ONTOnterris, Inc.QOC 6.6NVRIEnviri CorporationQOC 6.4ENGSEnergys Group LimitedQOC 5.2SNRGSusGlobal Energy Corp.QOC 4.4

Read investment analysis: RSG · WM · WCN · YDDL · CLH · ONT · NVRI · ENGS · SNRG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AWX?

7 companies across all industries closest to AWX’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

TEXTerex CorporationQOC 8.4ITUBItaú Unibanco Holding S.A.QOC 8.4STRAStrategic Education, Inc.QOC 8.4GTXGarrett Motion Inc.QOC 8.4FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQOC 8.4CSBBCSB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TEX · ITUB · STRA · GTX · FSUN · CSBB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Avalon Holdings Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Avalon Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX)'s intrinsic value at $5.94 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.25 to $15.60. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AWX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.70, 6 of 7 active models suggest AWX may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $5.94, 120.1% above the current price of $2.70 — a consensus view that AWX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Avalon Holdings Corporation's business model in Waste Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for AWX?

Avalon Holdings Corporation's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AWX?

CirclFi analyzes AWX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AWX?

Of the 7 models currently active on AWX, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $15.60 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $2.25. CirclFi's published fair value for AWX is the median of that range, $5.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 225% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AWX a value trap in 2026?

Avalon Holdings Corporation's Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) has a median fair value of $5.94 — 120.1% above the current price of $2.70 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AWX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AWX valuation
  • Financial statements: Avalon Holdings Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001061069) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AWX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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