Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) Fair Value 2026

AWX · Refuse Systems ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) trades at $2.64, approximately 8% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.87. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AWX
Price
$2.64
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +339.5% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $2.87 +8.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $0.40 -84.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $7.35 +178.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $11.60 +339.5%

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What Is Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Avalon Holdings Corporation. Trading at $2.64 against an estimated intrinsic value of $7.46, 10 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +182.5% on average. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $15.80 (+498.3%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $0.40 (-84.9%). This +583.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Avalon Holdings Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AWX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AWX. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AWX's intrinsic value at $2.87, implying +8.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AWX Rank in Refuse Systems?

Among 9 Refuse Systems stocks, AWX ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places AWX in the top tier.

Avalon Holdings Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AWX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AWX a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Avalon Holdings Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avalon Holdings Corporation scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +583.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AWX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AWX's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Avalon Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Refuse Systems Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Refuse Systems stocks with 13-model coverage

CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.QOC 8.2RSGRepublic Services, Inc.QOC 7.4WMWaste Management, Inc.QOC 7.1WCNWaste Connections, Inc.QOC 7.0QRHCQuest Resource Holding CorporatQOC 6.0OIOOIO GroupQOC 5.7RENXRenX Enterprises Corp.QOC 3.2GFLGFL Environmental Inc. SubordinQOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: CWST · RSG · WM · WCN · QRHC

Frequently Asked Questions About Avalon Holdings Corporation

What is Avalon Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.87. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AWX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.64, 10 of 12 active models suggest AWX may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Avalon Holdings Corporation's business model in Refuse Systems.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for AWX?

Avalon Holdings Corporation's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AWX?

CirclFi analyzes AWX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AWX a value trap in 2026?

Avalon Holdings Corporation's Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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