Bank First Corporation (BFC) Fair Value 2026

BFC · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Bank First Corporation (BFC) trades at $146.94, approximately 19% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $182.07. QOC: 9.0/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BFC
Price
$146.94
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +23.9% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($146.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$182.07 +23.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$28.80 -80.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$158.96 +8.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$145.23 -1.2%

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What Is Bank First Corporation (BFC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bank First Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $146.94. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $163.72 (+11.4% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $478.58 (+225.7%), versus EPV at $28.80 (-80.4%). This +306.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BFC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for BFC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BFC's intrinsic value at $182.07, implying +23.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BFC Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 90 National Commercial Banks stocks, BFC ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places BFC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

Within the National Commercial Banks space, Bank First Corporation competes in an environment where net interest margin (NIM) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BFC a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for BFC. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Bank First Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Bank First Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +306.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BFC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BFC's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bank First Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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See all National Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Bank First Corporation

What is Bank First Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Bank First Corporation (BFC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $182.07. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BFC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $146.94, 5 of 12 active models suggest BFC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bank First Corporation's business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for BFC?

Bank First Corporation's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BFC?

CirclFi analyzes BFC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BFC a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for BFC at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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