Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) Fair Value 2026

OCSL · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) trades at $12.29, approximately 27% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $16.81. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OCSL
Price
$12.29
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +171.5% upside with 38% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $16.13, 31.3% above the current price of $12.29. Estimates range from $1.76 to $37.16. OCSL scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $16.81 +36.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $14.92 +21.4%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
 $5.01 -59.2%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
 $33.37 +171.5%

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What Is Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo's intrinsic value is estimated at $16.15, suggesting a +31.4% average upside from the current price of $12.29. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $37.16 (+202.3%), versus EROIC at $1.76 (-85.7%). This +288.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About OCSL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for OCSL. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates OCSL's intrinsic value at $16.81, implying +36.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OCSL Rank in —?

OCSL operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OCSL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OCSL a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo is rated at 6.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +288.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OCSL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OCSL's 9 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 8.4SCMStellus Capital Investment CorpQOC 7.8FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.6HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 7.4TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC QOC 7.3OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 7.2GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: PSEC · SCM · FDUS · HTGC · GLAD

Frequently Asked Questions About Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo

What is Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $16.81. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OCSL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.29, 6 of 9 active models suggest OCSL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $16.13, 31.3% above the current price of $12.29 — a consensus view that OCSL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo's business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for OCSL?

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo's QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OCSL?

CirclFi analyzes OCSL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is OCSL a value trap in 2026?

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) has a median fair value of $16.13 — 31.3% above the current price of $12.29 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OCSL/ · Methodology

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