Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) Fair Value 2026

OCSL · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) trades at $13.02, versus a $12.83 median fair value across its 8 active models — 1.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $77.92.

Key Facts

Ticker
OCSL
Price
$13.02
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +498.5% upside with 27% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $12.83, within 1.4% of the current price of $13.02. Estimates range from $1.69 to $77.92. OCSL scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. OCSL’s -1.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OCSL?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.02)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $77.92 +498.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.87 +14.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.99 -23.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $6.07 -53.4%
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What Is OCSL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $1.69 to $77.92

CirclFi's 8 active models place Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) between $1.69 and $77.92 per share, a spread of 594% of the median. The median of that range — $12.83 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OCSL, against a current price of $13.02.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$1.69median $12.83$77.92
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$1.69
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$77.92
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OCSL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OCSL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $13.02. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $12.83 (-1.4% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $77.92 (+498.5%), versus EROIC at $1.69 (-87.1%). This +585.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About OCSL?

8 of 13 models are currently active for OCSL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OCSL is $12.83 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $77.92 on its own, implying +498.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OCSL Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, OCSL ranks #52 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OCSL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OCSL a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation is rated at 6.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +585.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OCSL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OCSL's 8 active models, average confidence is 19%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

VINPVinci Compass Investments Ltd.QOC 6.8BURBurford Capital LimitedQOC 6.7OBDCBlue Owl Capital CorporationQOC 6.9SCMStellus Capital Investment CorporationQOC 6.7LIENChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.QOC 6.9NCDLNuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.QOC 6.6FRBPFRANKLIN BSP CAP CORPQOC 5.2EVFEaton Vance Senior Income TrustQOC 4.6SEICSEI Investments CompanyQOC 8.9HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: VINP · BUR · OBDC · SCM · LIEN · NCDL · FRBP · EVF · SEIC · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OCSL?

7 companies across all industries closest to OCSL’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

SLSNSolesence, Inc.QOC 6.8PIIPolaris Inc.QOC 6.8QTTBQ32 Bio Inc.QOC 6.8MRMDMariMed Inc.QOC 6.8AIRTAir T, Inc.QOC 6.8SNAPSnap Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SLSN · PII · QTTB · MRMD · AIRT · SNAP · NVDA

Where Does OCSL Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

OCSL is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL)'s intrinsic value at $12.83 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.69 to $77.92. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $77.92 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OCSL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.02, 4 of 8 active models suggest OCSL may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $12.83, within 1.4% of the current price of $13.02 — a consensus view that OCSL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for OCSL?

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation's QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OCSL?

CirclFi analyzes OCSL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OCSL?

Of the 8 models currently active on OCSL, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $77.92 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $1.69. CirclFi's published fair value for OCSL is the median of that range, $12.83, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 594% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OCSL a value trap in 2026?

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation's Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) has a median fair value of $12.83 — within 1.4% of the current price of $13.02 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OCSL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OCSL valuation

Market data for OCSL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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