Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Fair Value 2026

OBDC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) trades at $10.03, versus a $14.45 median fair value across its 7 active models — 44.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OBDC
Price
$10.03
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +89.4% upside with 1% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $14.45, 44.1% above the current price of $10.03. Estimates range from $6.93 to $42.92. OBDC scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. OBDC’s +44.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is +3.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Blue Owl Capital Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OBDC?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.00 +89.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $14.45 +44.1%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.14 -8.8%
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What Is OBDC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $6.93 to $42.92

CirclFi's 7 active models place Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) between $6.93 and $42.92 per share, a spread of 249% of the median. The median of that range — $14.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OBDC, against a current price of $10.03.

Low · EROICHigh · RCMH-DCF
$6.93median $14.45$42.92
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$6.93
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$42.92
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OBDC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OBDC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Blue Owl Capital Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $14.45. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $10.03 (implied upside of +44.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +327.9% (fair value: $42.92), while EROIC is the most conservative at -30.9% ($6.93). The spread between these extremes — +358.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About OBDC?

7 of 13 models are currently active for OBDC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OBDC is $14.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OBDC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, OBDC ranks #50 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Blue Owl Capital Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OBDC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OBDC a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Blue Owl Capital Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Blue Owl Capital Corporation scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +358.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OBDC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OBDC's 7 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Blue Owl Capital Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

LIENChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.QOC 6.9VINPVinci Compass Investments Ltd.QOC 6.8GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 6.9OCSLOaktree Specialty Lending CorporationQOC 6.8AMTDAMTD IDEA GroupQOC 6.9BURBurford Capital LimitedQOC 6.7ALTIAlTi Global, Inc.QOC 5.2BANXArrowMark Financial Corp.QOC 4.7GCMGGCM Grosvenor Inc.QOC 9.0HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: LIEN · VINP · GLAD · OCSL · AMTD · BUR · ALTI · BANX · GCMG · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OBDC?

7 companies across all industries closest to OBDC’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

CLFDClearfield, Inc.QOC 6.9SRIStoneridge, Inc.QOC 6.9HURCHurco Companies, Inc.QOC 6.9CCICrown Castle Inc.QOC 6.9SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.9BVBrightView Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CLFD · SRI · HURC · CCI · SOFI · BV · NVDA

Where Does OBDC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

OBDC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Blue Owl Capital Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Blue Owl Capital Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC)'s intrinsic value at $14.45 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $6.93 to $42.92. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OBDC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.03, 5 of 7 active models suggest OBDC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $14.45, 44.1% above the current price of $10.03 — a consensus view that OBDC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Blue Owl Capital Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for OBDC?

Blue Owl Capital Corporation's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OBDC?

CirclFi analyzes OBDC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OBDC?

Of the 7 models currently active on OBDC, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $42.92 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $6.93. CirclFi's published fair value for OBDC is the median of that range, $14.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 249% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OBDC a value trap in 2026?

Blue Owl Capital Corporation's Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) has a median fair value of $14.45 — 44.1% above the current price of $10.03 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OBDC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OBDC valuation
  • Financial statements: Blue Owl Capital Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001655888) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OBDC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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