AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) Fair Value 2026

AMTD · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) trades at $0.95, approximately 193% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.32. QOC: 2.3/10. 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMTD
Price
$0.95
Quality Score
2.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +424.7% upside with 37% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.3/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $1.12, 18.1% above the current price of $0.95. Estimates range from $0.32 to $5.30. AMTD scores 2.3/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AMTD IDEA Group Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.32 -65.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $4.98 +424.7%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $1.12 +18.1%

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What Is AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on AMTD IDEA Group at $0.95. With an estimated intrinsic value of $2.29 and 4 of 7 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +141.3%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $5.30 (+457.5%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.32 (-65.8%). This +523.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AMTD IDEA Group's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMTD?

7 of 13 models are currently active for AMTD. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AMTD's intrinsic value at $0.32, implying -65.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMTD Rank in Asset Management?

Among 26 Asset Management stocks, AMTD ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.3 signals below-average fundamentals.

AMTD IDEA Group operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AMTD a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AMTD. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for AMTD IDEA Group. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AMTD IDEA Group earns a quality score of 2.3/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +523.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMTD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMTD's 7 active models, average confidence is 14%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AMTD IDEA Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.9APAMArtisan Partners Asset ManagemeQOC 9.6APOApollo Global Management, Inc. QOC 8.9ARESAres Management CorporationQOC 8.6AMGAffiliated Managers Group, Inc.QOC 8.4AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.QOC 8.3ABAllianceBernstein Holding L.P.QOC 7.8ASSTStrive, Inc.QOC 6.6

Read investment analysis: AMP · APAM · APO · ARES · AMG

Frequently Asked Questions About AMTD IDEA Group

What is AMTD IDEA Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.32. The Quality of Company score is 2.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMTD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.95, 5 of 7 active models suggest AMTD may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $1.12, 18.1% above the current price of $0.95 — a consensus view that AMTD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AMTD IDEA Group's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.3 mean for AMTD?

AMTD IDEA Group's QOC of 2.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMTD?

CirclFi analyzes AMTD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMTD a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AMTD at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) has a median fair value of $1.12 — 18.1% above the current price of $0.95 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMTD/ · Methodology

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