AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) Fair Value 2026

AMTD · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) trades at $0.73. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMTD
Price
$0.73
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +390.3% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (1/13) may reduce confidence

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMTD?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.56 +390.3%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for AMTD IDEA Group. Trading at $0.73 against an estimated intrinsic value of $3.56, 1 of 1 active models flag meaningful upside of +390.3% at the median.

What Do the Models Say About AMTD?

1 of 13 models are currently active for AMTD. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMTD Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, AMTD ranks #47 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

AMTD IDEA Group operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AMTD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMTD a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for AMTD IDEA Group. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AMTD IDEA Group earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMTD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMTD's 1 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AMTD IDEA Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.QOC 7.0GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 6.9FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.0LIENChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.QOC 6.9DBRGDigitalBridge Group, Inc.QOC 7.1OBDCBlue Owl Capital CorporationQOC 6.9CFNBCalifornia First Leasing CorporationQOC 5.3FINSAngel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term TrustQOC 4.7ALPAlpha Compute CorpQOC 2.1HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: OWL · GLAD · FDUS · LIEN · DBRG · OBDC · CFNB · FINS · ALP · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMTD?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMTD’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

BLFSBioLife Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9PRCTPROCEPT BioRobotics CorporationQOC 6.9STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.9AVBHAvidbank Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9AGCCAgencia Comercial Spirits LtdQOC 6.9SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLFS · PRCT · STWD · AVBH · AGCC · SLNG · NVDA

Where Does AMTD Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

AMTD is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AMTD IDEA Group’s Valuation?

What is AMTD IDEA Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD). The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMTD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.73, 1 of 1 active models suggest AMTD may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AMTD IDEA Group's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for AMTD?

AMTD IDEA Group's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMTD?

CirclFi analyzes AMTD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMTD a value trap in 2026?

AMTD IDEA Group's Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD) a Quality of Company score of 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMTD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMTD valuation
  • Financial statements: AMTD IDEA Group 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001769731) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMTD as of ; valuations recomputed .