Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) Fair Value 2026

LIEN · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) trades at $9.88, approximately 15% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.56. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LIEN
Price
$9.88
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +107.7% upside with 41% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$8.56 -13.4%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$3.44 -65.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$12.32 +24.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$20.52 +107.7%

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What Is Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $9.88. Based on our 13-model framework, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $14.85 — representing +50.3% implied upside — with 10 out of 13 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $52.81 (+434.5%), versus EPV at $3.44 (-65.2%). This +499.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LIEN?

13 of 13 models are currently active for LIEN. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LIEN's intrinsic value at $8.56, implying -13.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LIEN Rank in —?

LIEN operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LIEN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LIEN a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +499.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LIEN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LIEN's 13 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.

What is Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.56. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LIEN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.88, 10 of 13 active models suggest LIEN may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for LIEN?

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LIEN?

CirclFi analyzes LIEN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LIEN a value trap in 2026?

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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