Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) Fair Value 2026

LIEN · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (60/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) trades at $10.20, versus a $15.91 median fair value across its 11 active models — 56.0% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 60/100 (DANGER). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.80.

Key Facts

Ticker
LIEN
Price
$10.20
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
60/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +220.1% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 60 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $15.91, 56.0% above the current price of $10.20. Estimates range from $2.80 to $32.65. LIEN scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 60/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LIEN’s +56.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LIEN?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.80 -72.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.83 +55.2%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $32.65 +220.1%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $16.60 +62.8%
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What Is LIEN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.80 to $32.65

CirclFi's 11 active models place Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) between $2.80 and $32.65 per share, a spread of 188% of the median. The median of that range — $15.91 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LIEN, against a current price of $10.20.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$2.80median $15.91$32.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$2.80
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$32.65
Model agreement9 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LIEN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LIEN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $10.20. Based on our 13-model framework, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $15.91 — representing +56.0% implied upside — with 9 out of 11 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $32.65 (+220.1%), versus Bayesian DCF at $2.80 (-72.5%). This +292.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LIEN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for LIEN. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LIEN is $15.91 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.80 on its own, implying -72.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LIEN Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, LIEN ranks #49 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LIEN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LIEN a score of 60/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones. The elevated Value Trap score, however, warrants additional due diligence.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +292.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LIEN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LIEN's 11 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

GROWU.S. Global Investors, Inc.QOC 6.9OBDCBlue Owl Capital CorporationQOC 6.9GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 6.9VINPVinci Compass Investments Ltd.QOC 6.8AMTDAMTD IDEA GroupQOC 6.9OCSLOaktree Specialty Lending CorporationQOC 6.8AFCGAdvanced Flower Capital Inc.QOC 5.3FINSAngel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term TrustQOC 4.6AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: GROW · OBDC · GLAD · VINP · AMTD · OCSL · AFCG · FINS · AMP · HLNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LIEN?

7 companies across all industries closest to LIEN’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.QOC 6.9NLNLI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9DRVNDriven Brands Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CGAU · NL · ATEC · MIAX · UPST · DRVN · NVDA

Where Does LIEN Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

LIEN is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN)'s intrinsic value at $15.91 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.80 to $32.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.80 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LIEN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.20, 9 of 11 active models suggest LIEN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $15.91, 56.0% above the current price of $10.20 — a consensus view that LIEN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for LIEN?

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LIEN?

CirclFi analyzes LIEN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LIEN?

Of the 11 models currently active on LIEN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $32.65 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $2.80. CirclFi's published fair value for LIEN is the median of that range, $15.91, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 188% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LIEN a value trap in 2026?

Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 60/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) has a median fair value of $15.91 — 56.0% above the current price of $10.20 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LIEN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LIEN valuation
  • Financial statements: Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001843162) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LIEN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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