Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Fair Value 2026

APO · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) trades at $118.86, approximately 11% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $107.16. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
APO
Price
$118.86
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +57.2% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($118.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$107.16 -9.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$29.18 -75.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$77.07 -35.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$186.81 +57.2%

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What Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Apollo Global Management, Inc. 's intrinsic value is estimated at $81.36. Trading at its current price of $118.87, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -31.6%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $186.81 (+57.2%), versus EPV at $29.18 (-75.5%). This +132.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About APO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for APO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates APO's intrinsic value at $107.16, implying -9.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APO Rank in Asset Management?

Among 22 Asset Management stocks, APO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places APO in the top tier.

Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is APO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Apollo Global Management, Inc. . Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Apollo Global Management, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APO's 12 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Apollo Global Management, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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8 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AMP · APAM · ARES · AMG · AAMI

Frequently Asked Questions About Apollo Global Management, Inc.

What is Apollo Global Management, Inc. 's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $107.16. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $118.86, 1 of 12 active models suggest APO may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Apollo Global Management, Inc. 's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for APO?

Apollo Global Management, Inc. 's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APO?

CirclFi analyzes APO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is APO a value trap in 2026?

Apollo Global Management, Inc. 's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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