Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Fair Value 2026

SMCI · Computer Hardware ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) trades at $43.46, versus a $28.32 median fair value across its 10 active models — 34.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
SMCI
Price
$43.46
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +157.8% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $28.32, 34.8% below the current price of $43.46. Estimates range from $4.15 to $156.79. SMCI scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SMCI’s -34.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Computer Hardware sector median is -48.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Super Micro Computer, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SMCI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.15 -90.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $35.69 -17.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $112.02 +157.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.94 -51.8%
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What Is SMCI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $4.15 to $156.79

CirclFi's 10 active models place Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) between $4.15 and $156.79 per share, a spread of 539% of the median. The median of that range — $28.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SMCI, against a current price of $43.46.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$4.15median $28.32$156.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$4.15
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$156.79
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SMCI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SMCI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $28.32. Trading at $43.46, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -34.8%), as 6 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $156.79 (+260.8%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $4.15 (-90.5%). This +351.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SMCI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SMCI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SMCI is $28.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.15 on its own, implying -90.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SMCI Rank in Computer Hardware?

Among 43 Computer Hardware stocks, SMCI ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places SMCI in the top tier.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SMCI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SMCI a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Super Micro Computer, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Super Micro Computer, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +351.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SMCI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SMCI's 10 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Super Micro Computer, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Computer Hardware Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Computer Hardware stocks with 13-model coverage

PEverpure, Inc.QOC 8.8DELLDell Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1WDCWestern Digital CorporationQOC 8.8HPQHP Inc.QOC 7.9LOGILogitech International S.A.QOC 9.0CRCTCricut, Inc.QOC 7.9OSSOne Stop Systems, Inc.QOC 6.4RGTIRigetti Computing, Inc.QOC 5.4EBONEbang International Holdings Inc.QOC 3.2ANETArista Networks, Inc.QOC 9.8STXSeagate Technology Holdings plcQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: P · DELL · WDC · HPQ · LOGI · CRCT · OSS · RGTI · EBON · ANET · STX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SMCI?

7 companies across all industries closest to SMCI’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

TTCThe Toro CompanyQOC 8.4OPFIOppFi Inc.QOC 8.4OBKOrigin Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4DHID.R. Horton, Inc.QOC 8.4IRSIRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.4MATMattel, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TTC · OPFI · OBK · DHI · IRS · MAT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Super Micro Computer, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)'s intrinsic value at $28.32 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $4.15 to $156.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SMCI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.46, 4 of 10 active models suggest SMCI may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $28.32, 34.8% below the current price of $43.46 — a consensus view that SMCI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s business model in Computer Hardware.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for SMCI?

Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SMCI?

CirclFi analyzes SMCI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SMCI?

Of the 10 models currently active on SMCI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $156.79 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $4.15. CirclFi's published fair value for SMCI is the median of that range, $28.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 539% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SMCI a value trap in 2026?

Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has a median fair value of $28.32 — 34.8% below the current price of $43.46 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SMCI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SMCI valuation
  • Financial statements: Super Micro Computer, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001375365) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SMCI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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