Olin Corporation (OLN) Fair Value 2026

OLN · Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Olin Corporation (OLN) trades at $17.28, versus a $22.83 median fair value across its 7 active models — 32.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OLN
Price
$17.28
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +161.6% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Olin Corporation (OLN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Olin Corporation (OLN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $22.83, 32.1% above the current price of $17.28. Estimates range from $12.59 to $45.21. OLN scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OLN’s +32.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Chemicals sector median is -0.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Olin Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OLN?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.59 -27.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $28.39 +64.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.21 +161.6%
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What Is OLN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $12.59 to $45.21

CirclFi's 7 active models place Olin Corporation (OLN) between $12.59 and $45.21 per share, a spread of 143% of the median. The median of that range — $22.83 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OLN, against a current price of $17.28.

Low · EPVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$12.59median $22.83$45.21
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$12.59
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$45.21
Model agreement4 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OLN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OLN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Olin Corporation (OLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Olin Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $22.83, suggesting a +32.1% median upside from the current price of $17.28. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $45.21 (+161.6%), versus EPV at $12.59 (-27.1%). This +188.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OLN?

7 of 13 models are currently active for OLN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OLN is $22.83 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OLN Rank in Chemicals?

Among 17 Chemicals stocks, OLN ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial enterprise, Olin Corporation operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OLN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is OLN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OLN a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Olin Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Olin Corporation is rated at 6.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OLN's 7 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Olin Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

VHIValhi, Inc.QOC 6.9DOWDow Inc.QOC 6.8CECelanese CorporationQOC 7.2HUNHuntsman CorporationQOC 6.7ASIXAdvanSix Inc.QOC 7.6GPREGreen Plains Inc.QOC 6.7ACNTAscent Industries Co.QOC 6.6BAKBraskem S.A.QOC 5.8MEOHMethanex CorporationQOC 8.1REXREX American Resources CorporationQOC 8.3WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: VHI · DOW · CE · HUN · ASIX · GPRE · ACNT · BAK · MEOH · REX · WLKP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OLN?

7 companies across all industries closest to OLN’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

ANIKAnika Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.8DEAEasterly Government Properties, Inc.QOC 6.8FDSBFifth District Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.8BLXBladex Inc.QOC 6.8YSGYatsen Holding LimitedQOC 6.8RUNSunrun Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ANIK · DEA · FDSB · BLX · YSG · RUN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Olin Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Olin Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Olin Corporation (OLN)'s intrinsic value at $22.83 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.59 to $45.21. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.28, 4 of 7 active models suggest OLN may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $22.83, 32.1% above the current price of $17.28 — a consensus view that OLN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Olin Corporation's business model in Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for OLN?

Olin Corporation's QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OLN?

CirclFi analyzes OLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OLN?

Of the 7 models currently active on OLN, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $45.21 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $12.59. CirclFi's published fair value for OLN is the median of that range, $22.83, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 143% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OLN a value trap in 2026?

Olin Corporation's Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Olin Corporation (OLN) has a median fair value of $22.83 — 32.1% above the current price of $17.28 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OLN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OLN valuation
  • Financial statements: Olin Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000074303) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OLN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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