Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Fair Value 2026

SU · Oil & Gas Integrated ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) trades at $68.22, versus a $42.61 median fair value across its 12 active models — 37.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $8.62.

Key Facts

Ticker
SU
Price
$68.22
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $42.61, 37.5% below the current price of $68.22. Estimates range from $8.62 to $76.87. SU scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SU’s -37.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Integrated sector median is -20.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Suncor Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SU?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($68.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $8.62 -87.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $32.25 -52.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $40.15 -41.1%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $53.56 -21.5%
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What Is SU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $8.62 to $76.87

CirclFi's 12 active models place Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) between $8.62 and $76.87 per share, a spread of 160% of the median. The median of that range — $42.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SU, against a current price of $68.22.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$8.62median $42.61$76.87
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$8.62
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$76.87
Model agreement1 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Suncor Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $42.61. Trading at its current price of $68.22, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -37.5%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $76.87 (+12.7%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $8.62 (-87.4%). This +100.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Suncor Energy Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SU?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SU. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SU is $42.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $8.62 on its own, implying -87.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SU Rank in Oil & Gas Integrated?

Among 20 Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, SU ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Integrated sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Suncor Energy Inc., metrics like reserve life index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SU a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Suncor Energy Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Suncor Energy Inc. scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SU's 12 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Suncor Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Integrated stocks with 13-model coverage

BPBP p.l.c.QOC 7.4EEni S.p.A.QOC 7.3SHELShell plcQOC 8.1DECDiversified Energy CompanyQOC 7.2XOMExxonMobil Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9VIVKVivakor, Inc.QOC 5.5EQNREquinor ASAQOC 2.7CVECenovus Energy Inc.QOC 8.5ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: BP · E · SHEL · DEC · XOM · SLNG · VIVK · EQNR · CVE · EC · TGS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SU?

7 companies across all industries closest to SU’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

AMXAmérica Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.4GDSGDS Holdings LimitedQOC 7.4TWSTTwist Bioscience CorporationQOC 7.4JGAurora Mobile LimitedQOC 7.4GTLBGitLab Inc.QOC 7.4SAMGSilvercrest Asset Management Group Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AMX · GDS · TWST · JG · GTLB · SAMG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Suncor Energy Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Suncor Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)'s intrinsic value at $42.61 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $8.62 to $76.87. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $8.62 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $68.22, 1 of 12 active models suggest SU may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $42.61, 37.5% below the current price of $68.22 — a consensus view that SU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Suncor Energy Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Integrated.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for SU?

Suncor Energy Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SU?

CirclFi analyzes SU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SU?

Of the 12 models currently active on SU, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $76.87 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $8.62. CirclFi's published fair value for SU is the median of that range, $42.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 160% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SU a value trap in 2026?

Suncor Energy Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) has a median fair value of $42.61 — 37.5% below the current price of $68.22 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SU valuation
  • Financial statements: Suncor Energy Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000311337) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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