MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Fair Value 2026

MTG · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) trades at $30.99, versus a $38.87 median fair value across its 6 active models — 25.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTG
Price
$30.99
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +86.5% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $38.87, 25.4% above the current price of $30.99. Estimates range from $28.44 to $57.80. MTG scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MTG’s +25.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Specialty sector median is +10.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MGIC Investment Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MTG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.93 +19.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $40.80 +31.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $57.80 +86.5%
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What Is MTG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $28.44 to $57.80

CirclFi's 6 active models place MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) between $28.44 and $57.80 per share, a spread of 76% of the median. The median of that range — $38.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MTG, against a current price of $30.99.

Low · FTNNHigh · Markov DDM
$28.44median $38.87$57.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$28.44
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$57.80
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MTG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MGIC Investment Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $38.87. At a current market price of $30.99, 5 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +25.4%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +86.5% (fair value: $57.80), while FTNN is the most conservative at -8.2% ($28.44). The spread between these extremes — +94.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MTG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MTG. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MTG is $38.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTG Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 17 Insurance - Specialty stocks, MTG ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places MTG in the top tier.

The Insurance - Specialty sector introduces analytical considerations specific to underwriting business businesses. For MGIC Investment Corporation, metrics like policy retention rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MTG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for MGIC Investment Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, MGIC Investment Corporation earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTG's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MGIC Investment Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1AXSAXIS Capital Holdings LimitedQOC 8.1ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1ITICInvestors Title CompanyQOC 8.0NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9FNFFidelity National Financial, Inc.QOC 7.9RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.QOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: ACT · AXS · ESNT · ITIC · NMIH · FAF · FNF · RDN · OSG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MTG?

7 companies across all industries closest to MTG’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

IDNIntellicheck, Inc.QOC 8.5ISBAIsabella Bank CorporationQOC 8.5BWFGBankwell Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.5WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5PRDOPerdoceo Education CorporationQOC 8.5PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IDN · ISBA · BWFG · WTW · PRDO · PYPL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MGIC Investment Corporation’s Valuation?

What is MGIC Investment Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG)'s intrinsic value at $38.87 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $28.44 to $57.80. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.99, 5 of 6 active models suggest MTG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $38.87, 25.4% above the current price of $30.99 — a consensus view that MTG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MGIC Investment Corporation's business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for MTG?

MGIC Investment Corporation's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTG?

CirclFi analyzes MTG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MTG?

Of the 6 models currently active on MTG, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $57.80 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $28.44. CirclFi's published fair value for MTG is the median of that range, $38.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 76% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MTG a value trap in 2026?

MGIC Investment Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) has a median fair value of $38.87 — 25.4% above the current price of $30.99 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MTG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MTG valuation
  • Financial statements: MGIC Investment Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000876437) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MTG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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