Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Fair Value 2026

RDN · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Radian Group Inc. (RDN) trades at $36.41, versus a $47.25 median fair value across its 6 active models — 29.8% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RDN
Price
$36.41
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +34.1% upside with 73% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Radian Group Inc. (RDN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $47.25, 29.8% above the current price of $36.41. Estimates range from $38.72 to $67.53. RDN scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RDN’s +29.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Specialty sector median is +10.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Radian Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RDN?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($36.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $48.84 +34.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $47.38 +30.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $47.12 +29.4%
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What Is RDN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $38.72 to $67.53

CirclFi's 6 active models place Radian Group Inc. (RDN) between $38.72 and $67.53 per share, a spread of 61% of the median. The median of that range — $47.25 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RDN, against a current price of $36.41.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$38.72median $47.25$67.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$38.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$67.53
Model agreement6 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RDN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Radian Group Inc.. Trading at $36.41 against an estimated intrinsic value of $47.25, 6 of 6 active models flag meaningful upside of +29.8% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $67.53 (+85.5%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $38.72 (+6.3%). This +79.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Radian Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About RDN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for RDN. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for RDN is $47.25 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RDN Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 17 Insurance - Specialty stocks, RDN ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Insurance - Specialty sector introduces analytical considerations specific to insurance industry businesses. For Radian Group Inc., metrics like investment float provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RDN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RDN a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Radian Group Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Radian Group Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +79.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RDN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RDN's 6 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Radian Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.QOC 7.8EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.QOC 7.8JRVRJames River Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.QOC 6.0ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: AGO · EIG · RYAN · STLY · AMSF · JRVR · OSG · ACT · FAF · NMIH · ESNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RDN?

7 companies across all industries closest to RDN’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

TXG10x Genomics, Inc.QOC 7.6MDLZMondelez International, Inc.QOC 7.6PFSBPFS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.6QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6AXGNAxogen, Inc.QOC 7.6MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TXG · MDLZ · PFSB · QSR · AXGN · MTSI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Radian Group Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Radian Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Radian Group Inc. (RDN)'s intrinsic value at $47.25 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $38.72 to $67.53. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RDN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $36.41, 6 of 6 active models suggest RDN may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $47.25, 29.8% above the current price of $36.41 — a consensus view that RDN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Radian Group Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for RDN?

Radian Group Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RDN?

CirclFi analyzes RDN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RDN?

Of the 6 models currently active on RDN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $67.53 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $38.72. CirclFi's published fair value for RDN is the median of that range, $47.25, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 61% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RDN a value trap in 2026?

Radian Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Radian Group Inc. (RDN) has a median fair value of $47.25 — 29.8% above the current price of $36.41 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RDN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RDN valuation
  • Financial statements: Radian Group Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000890926) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RDN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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