What Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Assured Guaranty Ltd. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $83.66. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $93.20 (+11.4% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $293.04 (+250.3%), versus RCMH-DCF at $17.22 (-79.4%). This +329.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About AGO?
11 of 13 models are currently active for AGO. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AGO's intrinsic value at $17.44, implying -79.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AGO Rank in Insurance - Specialty?
Among 3 Insurance - Specialty stocks, AGO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.
As a risk-bearing enterprise, Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates in a sector where expense ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AGO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is AGO a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
11 of 13 models are active for Assured Guaranty Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Assured Guaranty Ltd. is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +329.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AGO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AGO's 11 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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