Should You Buy AMERISAFE, Inc. Stock in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) is rated as a strong fundamental performer with a QOC score of 7.8/10. Trading at $26.14, our valuation engine evaluates whether the market price reflects the company's underlying earnings power.
The short answer: 4 of 6 CirclFi valuation models project upside for AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) at $26.14 — the model consensus leans bullish, with a Quality Score of 7.8/10 and Value-Trap risk of 8/100. The full bull case, bear case, and risk factors are below. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
What Is the Investment Case for AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) in 2026?
What Is the Bull Case vs the Bear Case for AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF)?
| Bull case — $40.86 target (+56.3%) | Bear case — $23.40 target (-10.5%) |
|---|---|
| According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AMERISAFE, Inc.'s score of 7.8/10 reflects durable competitive advantages that should sustain earnings power through market cycles. | According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the Regime Cross-Sectional model sees the stock as overvalued with a fair value of $23.40 (-10.5%), suggesting that the market price embeds overly optimistic growth assumptions. |
| According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the stock shows multi-model upside with a median implied return of +10.7% across 3 bullish models from the current price of $26.14. | According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, model disagreement is high with a +66.8% spread between the most bullish and bearish models, signaling elevated analytical uncertainty. |
| According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the Earnings Power Value (EPV) model targets a fair value of $40.86 (+56.3%), anchoring the bull case with a methodology that strips out growth assumptions to value sustainable earnings alone. | Industry headwind: investment portfolio risk represents a meaningful risk for AMERISAFE, Inc. and its Insurance - Specialty peers. |
| Industry tailwind: market share gains could provide meaningful support for AMERISAFE, Inc.'s revenue and margin trajectory in the Insurance - Specialty space. |
How Does AMSF Compare to Its Insurance - Specialty Peers?
Valuation data pages: FNF · RYAN · FAF · AGO · ITIC · RDN · EIG · MBI · MTG · NMIH · ESNT
Which Other Stocks Score Like AMSF on Quality?
Closest companies to AMSF’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10, across all industries.
- PNFP — Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (QOC 7.8) · analysis
- MCB — Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (QOC 7.8) · analysis
- CSR — Centerspace (QOC 7.8) · analysis
- JMSB — John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (QOC 7.8) · analysis
- IIPR — Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (QOC 7.8) · analysis
- EMBJ — Embraer S.A. (QOC 7.8) · analysis
- NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation (QOC 10.0) · analysis
So Is AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) Worth Buying in 2026?
Our models don't have a clear verdict on AMERISAFE, Inc.. At $26.14 vs. $28.94 median fair value, the median upside of +10.7% masks significant model disagreement (+66.8% spread). With quality at 7.8/10, this is a stock where the margin of error is wide and additional fundamental research is strongly recommended.
These are quantitative model outputs, not investment recommendations. AMERISAFE, Inc.'s future depends on factors — management execution, competitive dynamics, regulatory changes — that no algorithm can fully capture. See all 13 model estimates →
What Else Do Investors Ask About AMSF Stock?
Should I buy AMSF stock right now?
Based on CirclFi's multi-model analysis, 4 of 6 models see upside for AMSF at $26.14. The majority of models suggest the stock trades below fair value, but investors should weigh this against the Quality Score of 7.8/10 and individual risk tolerance. This is not a buy recommendation — see our full disclaimer.
What are the biggest risks of investing in AMERISAFE, Inc.?
Key risks include: limited model coverage (6/13 active), reducing analytical confidence; general market and sector-specific risks affecting Insurance - Specialty companies. Always diversify and consult a financial advisor.
How does AMSF compare to its competitors?
Among Insurance - Specialty peers, AMSF holds a Quality Score of 7.8/10. Comparable companies include FNF (QOC 7.9), RYAN (QOC 7.8), FAF (QOC 7.9). The relative ranking helps investors identify whether AMSF offers better fundamental quality than alternatives in the same sector.
Is AMSF a good long-term investment?
Long-term investment potential depends on fundamental quality and sustainable competitive advantages. AMSF's Quality Score of 7.8/10 is encouraging for long-term holders, indicating consistent profitability, manageable debt, and healthy cash flows. Check our full data page for all 13 model estimates.
What price should I buy AMSF at?
CirclFi does not provide target buy prices or price alerts. However, our 6 active models produce fair value estimates ranging from $23.40 to $40.86. At $26.14, the stock trades within the range of model estimates. Many value investors look for a 20-30% margin of safety below intrinsic value before buying.
Want the complete picture?
See all 13 model estimates, confidence scores, and the full valuation table for AMSF.
Disclaimer: This article is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models and is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, a buy/sell recommendation, or a solicitation to trade securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data sourced from SEC EDGAR, FRED, and GDELT. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Full disclaimer →
Buy with Gumroad