AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) Fair Value 2026

AMSF · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) trades at $23.60, versus a $28.32 median fair value across its 6 active models — 20.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMSF
Price
$23.60
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +63.8% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $28.32, 20.0% above the current price of $23.60. Estimates range from $21.88 to $38.66. AMSF scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. AMSF’s +20.0% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AMERISAFE, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMSF?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.66 +63.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $31.02 +31.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.71 +51.3%
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What Is AMSF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $21.88 to $38.66

CirclFi's 6 active models place AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) between $21.88 and $38.66 per share, a spread of 59% of the median. The median of that range — $28.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMSF, against a current price of $23.60.

Low · FTNNHigh · EPV
$21.88median $28.32$38.66
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$21.88
Most bullish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$38.66
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMSF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AMERISAFE, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $28.32. At a current market price of $23.60, 5 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +20.0%. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +63.8% (fair value: $38.66), while FTNN is the most conservative at -7.3% ($21.88). The spread between these extremes — +71.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AMSF?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AMSF. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AMSF is $28.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMSF Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 16 Insurance - Specialty stocks, AMSF ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a underwriting business, AMERISAFE, Inc. operates in a sector where combined ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AMSF should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AMSF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMSF a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for AMERISAFE, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, AMERISAFE, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +71.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMSF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMSF's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AMERISAFE, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

FNFFidelity National Financial, Inc.QOC 7.9AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.QOC 7.8FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6ITICInvestors Title CompanyQOC 8.0EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3AXSAXIS Capital Holdings LimitedQOC 8.1ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FNF · AGO · FAF · RDN · ITIC · EIG · STLY · NMIH · AXS · ESNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMSF?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMSF’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

FBNCFirst BancorpQOC 7.8MCBMetropolitan Bank Holding Corp.QOC 7.8SLVMSylvamo CorporationQOC 7.8SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQOC 7.8EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.8EMNEastman Chemical CompanyQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FBNC · MCB · SLVM · SW · EMBJ · EMN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AMERISAFE, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AMERISAFE, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF)'s intrinsic value at $28.32 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $21.88 to $38.66. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMSF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.60, 5 of 6 active models suggest AMSF may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $28.32, 20.0% above the current price of $23.60 — a consensus view that AMSF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AMERISAFE, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for AMSF?

AMERISAFE, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMSF?

CirclFi analyzes AMSF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMSF?

Of the 6 models currently active on AMSF, Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bullish at $38.66 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $21.88. CirclFi's published fair value for AMSF is the median of that range, $28.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 59% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMSF a value trap in 2026?

AMERISAFE, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) has a median fair value of $28.32 — 20.0% above the current price of $23.60 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMSF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMSF valuation
  • Financial statements: AMERISAFE, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001018979) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMSF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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