HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY) Fair Value 2026

STLY · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (51/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY) trades at $3.75, versus a $4.23 median fair value across its 5 active models — 12.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 51/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STLY
Price
$3.75
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
51/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +71.1% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 51 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $4.23, 12.9% above the current price of $3.75. Estimates range from $2.76 to $6.42. STLY scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 51/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. STLY’s +12.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Specialty sector median is +9.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HG Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STLY?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.23 +12.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $6.42 +71.1%
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What Is STLY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $2.76 to $6.42

CirclFi's 5 active models place HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY) between $2.76 and $6.42 per share, a spread of 86% of the median. The median of that range — $4.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STLY, against a current price of $3.75.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$2.76median $4.23$6.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.76
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$6.42
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STLY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HG Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.23, suggesting a +12.9% median upside from the current price of $3.75. While 3 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 1 model flags potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $6.42 (+71.1%), versus Regime Cross at $2.76 (-26.5%). This +97.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About STLY?

5 of 13 models are currently active for STLY. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STLY is $4.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STLY Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 17 Insurance - Specialty stocks, STLY ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

The Insurance - Specialty sector introduces analytical considerations specific to risk-bearing enterprise businesses. For HG Holdings, Inc., metrics like loss ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is STLY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STLY a score of 51/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for HG Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HG Holdings, Inc. scores 7.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STLY's 5 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HG Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5JRVRJames River Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.QOC 6.0AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.QOC 7.8MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.8NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3AXSAXIS Capital Holdings LimitedQOC 8.1AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.QOC 7.8ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: EIG · JRVR · RDN · OSG · AGO · MBI · NMIH · AXS · AMSF · ESNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STLY?

7 companies across all industries closest to STLY’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.0BLZEBackblaze, Inc.QOC 7.0FCCOFirst Community CorporationQOC 7.0FNMAFederal National Mortgage AssociationQOC 7.0HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.QOC 7.0EHLDEuroholdings Ltd.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FDUS · BLZE · FCCO · FNMA · HTH · EHLD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About HG Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is HG Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY)'s intrinsic value at $4.23 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.76 to $6.42. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STLY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.75, 3 of 5 active models suggest STLY may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $4.23, 12.9% above the current price of $3.75 — a consensus view that STLY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HG Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for STLY?

HG Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STLY?

CirclFi analyzes STLY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STLY?

Of the 5 models currently active on STLY, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $6.42 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $2.76. CirclFi's published fair value for STLY is the median of that range, $4.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 86% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STLY a value trap in 2026?

HG Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 51/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, HG Holdings, Inc. (STLY) has a median fair value of $4.23 — 12.9% above the current price of $3.75 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STLY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STLY valuation
  • Financial statements: HG Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000797465) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STLY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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