AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) Fair Value 2026

AXS · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) trades at $99.03, versus a $115.19 median fair value across its 6 active models — 16.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AXS
Price
$99.03
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +21.5% upside with 23% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $115.19, 16.3% above the current price of $99.03. Estimates range from $78.31 to $194.25. AXS scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AXS’s +16.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Specialty sector median is +9.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AXIS Capital Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AXS?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($99.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $81.94 -17.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $120.28 +21.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $78.31 -20.9%
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What Is AXS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $78.31 to $194.25

CirclFi's 6 active models place AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) between $78.31 and $194.25 per share, a spread of 101% of the median. The median of that range — $115.19 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AXS, against a current price of $99.03.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$78.31median $115.19$194.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$78.31
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$194.25
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AXS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AXS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AXIS Capital Holdings Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $115.19, suggesting a +16.3% median upside from the current price of $99.03. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $194.25 (+96.2%), versus Markov DDM at $78.31 (-20.9%). This +117.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AXS?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AXS. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AXS is $115.19 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AXS Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 17 Insurance - Specialty stocks, AXS ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places AXS in the top tier.

The Insurance - Specialty sector introduces analytical considerations specific to risk-bearing enterprise businesses. For AXIS Capital Holdings Limited, metrics like policy retention rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AXS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AXS a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for AXIS Capital Holdings Limited. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AXIS Capital Holdings Limited earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +117.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AXS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AXS's 6 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AXIS Capital Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

MTGMGIC Investment CorporationQOC 8.5ITICInvestors Title CompanyQOC 8.0ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1FNFFidelity National Financial, Inc.QOC 7.9AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.QOC 7.8EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.8NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MTG · ITIC · ACT · FAF · ESNT · FNF · AMSF · EIG · MBI · NMIH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AXS?

7 companies across all industries closest to AXS’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

TGTXTG Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.1TKRThe Timken CompanyQOC 8.1NATLNCR Atleos CorporationQOC 8.1VNTVontier CorporationQOC 8.1VCIGVCI Global LimitedQOC 8.1TREXTrex Company, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TGTX · TKR · NATL · VNT · VCIG · TREX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AXIS Capital Holdings Limited’s Valuation?

What is AXIS Capital Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS)'s intrinsic value at $115.19 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $78.31 to $194.25. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AXS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $99.03, 4 of 6 active models suggest AXS may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $115.19, 16.3% above the current price of $99.03 — a consensus view that AXS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AXIS Capital Holdings Limited's business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for AXS?

AXIS Capital Holdings Limited's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AXS?

CirclFi analyzes AXS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AXS?

Of the 6 models currently active on AXS, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $194.25 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $78.31. CirclFi's published fair value for AXS is the median of that range, $115.19, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 101% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AXS a value trap in 2026?

AXIS Capital Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) has a median fair value of $115.19 — 16.3% above the current price of $99.03 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AXS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AXS valuation
  • Financial statements: AXIS Capital Holdings Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001214816) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AXS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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