Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) Fair Value 2026

AXS · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) trades at $114.50, approximately 63% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $308.92. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AXS
Price
$114.50
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +169.8% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($114.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $308.92 +169.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $67.58 -41.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $180.44 +57.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $127.83 +11.6%

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What Is Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Axis Capital Holdings Limited presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $114.51. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $186.21 (+62.6% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $494.17 (+331.6%), versus Markov DDM at $61.75 (-46.1%). This +377.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AXS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AXS. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AXS's intrinsic value at $308.92, implying +169.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AXS Rank in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance?

Among 50 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks, AXS ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places AXS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks →

The Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance sector introduces analytical considerations specific to risk-bearing enterprise businesses. For Axis Capital Holdings Limited, metrics like policy retention rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AXS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AXS a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Axis Capital Holdings Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Axis Capital Holdings Limited earns a quality score of 9.3/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +377.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AXS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AXS's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Axis Capital Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks with 13-model coverage

HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 10.0KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 10.0HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 10.0SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance GroQOC 10.0RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.QOC 9.9WRBW.R. Berkley CorporationQOC 9.8KINSKingstone Companies, IncQOC 9.8MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: HCI · KNSL · HG · SKWD · RNR

See all Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Axis Capital Holdings Limited

What is Axis Capital Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $308.92. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AXS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $114.50, 7 of 12 active models suggest AXS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Axis Capital Holdings Limited's business model in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for AXS?

Axis Capital Holdings Limited's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AXS?

CirclFi analyzes AXS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AXS a value trap in 2026?

Axis Capital Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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