Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Fair Value 2026

RUN · Solar ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) trades at $9.06, versus a $34.99 median fair value across its 3 active models — 286.2% above the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RUN
Price
$9.06
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +492.8% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $34.99, 286.2% above the current price of $9.06. Estimates range from $15.99 to $53.71. RUN scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. RUN’s +286.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sunrun Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RUN?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $15.99 +76.5%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $53.71 +492.8%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $34.99 +286.2%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is RUN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $15.99 to $53.71

CirclFi's 3 active models place Sunrun Inc. (RUN) between $15.99 and $53.71 per share, a spread of 108% of the median. The median of that range — $34.99 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RUN, against a current price of $9.06.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$15.99median $34.99$53.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$15.99
Most bullish modelPWERM$53.71
Model agreement3 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RUN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RUN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sunrun Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $9.06. Based on our 13-model framework, Sunrun Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $34.99 — representing +286.2% implied upside — with 3 out of 3 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $53.71 (+492.8%), versus Regime Cross at $15.99 (+76.5%). This +416.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RUN?

3 of 13 models are currently active for RUN. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for RUN is $34.99 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RUN Rank in Solar?

Among 22 Solar stocks, RUN ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Solar space, Sunrun Inc. competes in an environment where reserve life index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is RUN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RUN a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Sunrun Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Sunrun Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +416.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RUN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RUN's 3 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sunrun Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Solar Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Solar stocks with 13-model coverage

SPRUSpruce Power Holding CorporationQOC 6.8JKSJinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 6.7SEDGSolarEdge Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.1ARRYArray Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.5SHLSShoals Technologies Group, Inc.QOC 7.4TYGOTigo Energy, Inc.QOC 5.9SUNESUNation Energy Inc.QOC 5.6HYSRSunHydrogen, Inc.QOC 4.6FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.QOC 9.3NXTNextpower Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: SPRU · JKS · SEDG · ARRY · SHLS · TYGO · SUNE · HYSR · FSLR · NXT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RUN?

7 companies across all industries closest to RUN’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

BLXBladex Inc.QOC 6.8INTCIntel CorporationQOC 6.8DEAEasterly Government Properties, Inc.QOC 6.8CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc.QOC 6.8OLNOlin CorporationQOC 6.8REAXReal REMAX Group Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLX · INTC · DEA · CPS · OLN · REAX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sunrun Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Sunrun Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sunrun Inc. (RUN)'s intrinsic value at $34.99 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.99 to $53.71. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RUN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.06, 3 of 3 active models suggest RUN may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $34.99, 286.2% above the current price of $9.06 — a consensus view that RUN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sunrun Inc.'s business model in Solar.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for RUN?

Sunrun Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RUN?

CirclFi analyzes RUN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RUN?

Of the 3 models currently active on RUN, PWERM is the most bullish at $53.71 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $15.99. CirclFi's published fair value for RUN is the median of that range, $34.99, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 108% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RUN a value trap in 2026?

Sunrun Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) has a median fair value of $34.99 — 286.2% above the current price of $9.06 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RUN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RUN valuation
  • Financial statements: Sunrun Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001469367) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RUN as of ; valuations recomputed .