Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) Fair Value 2026

CLW · Paper & Paper Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) trades at $20.82, versus a $29.74 median fair value across its 5 active models — 42.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CLW
Price
$20.82
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +42.9% upside with 11% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $29.74, 42.9% above the current price of $20.82. Estimates range from $13.86 to $73.79. CLW scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CLW’s +42.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Clearwater Paper Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CLW?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.86 -33.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $29.74 +42.9%
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What Is CLW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $13.86 to $73.79

CirclFi's 5 active models place Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) between $13.86 and $73.79 per share, a spread of 201% of the median. The median of that range — $29.74 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CLW, against a current price of $20.82.

Low · EPVHigh · PWERM
$13.86median $29.74$73.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$13.86
Most bullish modelPWERM$73.79
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CLW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CLW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Clearwater Paper Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $29.74, suggesting a +42.9% median upside from the current price of $20.82. While 3 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $73.79 (+254.4%), versus EPV at $13.86 (-33.4%). This +287.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CLW?

5 of 13 models are currently active for CLW. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CLW is $29.74 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CLW Rank in Paper & Paper Products?

Among 5 Paper & Paper Products stocks, CLW ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

Clearwater Paper Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CLW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CLW a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Clearwater Paper Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Clearwater Paper Corporation scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +287.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CLW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CLW's 5 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Clearwater Paper Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Paper & Paper Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Paper & Paper Products stocks with 13-model coverage

SLVMSylvamo CorporationQOC 7.8SUZSuzano S.A.QOC 7.6ITPIT Tech Packaging, Inc.QOC 6.4MERCMercer International Inc.QOC 5.3

Read investment analysis: SLVM · SUZ · ITP · MERC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CLW?

7 companies across all industries closest to CLW’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6PESIPerma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc.QOC 6.6CSANCosan S.A.QOC 6.6TVTXTravere Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5DLHCDLH Holdings Corp.QOC 6.6SYSo-Young International Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HTZ · PESI · CSAN · TVTX · DLHC · SY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Clearwater Paper Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Clearwater Paper Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)'s intrinsic value at $29.74 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.86 to $73.79. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CLW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.82, 3 of 5 active models suggest CLW may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $29.74, 42.9% above the current price of $20.82 — a consensus view that CLW is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Clearwater Paper Corporation's business model in Paper & Paper Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for CLW?

Clearwater Paper Corporation's QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CLW?

CirclFi analyzes CLW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CLW?

Of the 5 models currently active on CLW, PWERM is the most bullish at $73.79 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $13.86. CirclFi's published fair value for CLW is the median of that range, $29.74, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 201% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CLW a value trap in 2026?

Clearwater Paper Corporation's Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) has a median fair value of $29.74 — 42.9% above the current price of $20.82 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CLW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CLW valuation
  • Financial statements: Clearwater Paper Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001441236) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CLW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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