Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) Fair Value 2026

SBLK · Marine Shipping ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) trades at $30.42, versus a $23.91 median fair value across its 12 active models — 21.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.76.

Key Facts

Ticker
SBLK
Price
$30.42
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +37.3% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $23.91, 21.4% below the current price of $30.42. Estimates range from $10.94 to $52.25. SBLK scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SBLK’s -21.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Marine Shipping sector median is -15.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Star Bulk Carriers Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SBLK?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.76 +37.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.44 +23.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.40 -13.2%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $33.80 +11.1%
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What Is SBLK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $10.94 to $52.25

CirclFi's 12 active models place Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) between $10.94 and $52.25 per share, a spread of 173% of the median. The median of that range — $23.91 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SBLK, against a current price of $30.42.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$10.94median $23.91$52.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$10.94
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$52.25
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SBLK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SBLK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Star Bulk Carriers Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $23.91. Trading at $30.42, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -21.4%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $52.25 (+71.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $10.94 (-64.0%). This +135.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Star Bulk Carriers Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SBLK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SBLK. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SBLK is $23.91 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.76 on its own, implying +37.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SBLK Rank in Marine Shipping?

Among 37 Marine Shipping stocks, SBLK ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places SBLK in the top tier.

The Marine Shipping sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Star Bulk Carriers Corp., metrics like units delivered provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SBLK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SBLK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Star Bulk Carriers Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Star Bulk Carriers Corp. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SBLK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SBLK's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Star Bulk Carriers Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Marine Shipping Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Marine Shipping stocks with 13-model coverage

PANLPangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd.QOC 8.2NCTIntercont (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.7ASCArdmore Shipping CorporationQOC 8.2DSXDiana Shipping Inc.QOC 7.7MATXMatson, Inc.QOC 8.4NMMNavios Maritime Partners L.P.QOC 7.7EHLDEuroholdings Ltd.QOC 7.0EDRYEuroDry Ltd.QOC 5.4DACDanaos CorporationQOC 2.7GSLGlobal Ship Lease, Inc.QOC 9.4CMRECostamare Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: PANL · NCT · ASC · DSX · MATX · NMM · EHLD · EDRY · DAC · GSL · CMRE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SBLK?

7 companies across all industries closest to SBLK’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.QOC 8.2LFVNLifeVantage CorporationQOC 8.1HDBHDFC Bank LimitedQOC 8.2LYFTLyft, Inc.QOC 8.1PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.2CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RCL · LFVN · HDB · LYFT · PENG · CDRE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Star Bulk Carriers Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Star Bulk Carriers Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK)'s intrinsic value at $23.91 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.94 to $52.25. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.76 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SBLK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.42, 4 of 12 active models suggest SBLK may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $23.91, 21.4% below the current price of $30.42 — a consensus view that SBLK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Star Bulk Carriers Corp.'s business model in Marine Shipping.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for SBLK?

Star Bulk Carriers Corp.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SBLK?

CirclFi analyzes SBLK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SBLK?

Of the 12 models currently active on SBLK, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $52.25 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $10.94. CirclFi's published fair value for SBLK is the median of that range, $23.91, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 173% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SBLK a value trap in 2026?

Star Bulk Carriers Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) has a median fair value of $23.91 — 21.4% below the current price of $30.42 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SBLK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SBLK valuation
  • Financial statements: Star Bulk Carriers Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001386716) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SBLK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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