Textron Inc. (TXT) Fair Value 2026

TXT · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Textron Inc. (TXT) trades at $82.35, versus a $76.59 median fair value across its 11 active models — 7.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $76.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXT
Price
$82.35
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Textron Inc. (TXT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Textron Inc. (TXT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $76.59, within 7.0% of the current price of $82.35. Estimates range from $8.07 to $311.40. TXT scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TXT’s -7.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Textron Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TXT?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($82.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $76.59 -7.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.96 -21.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $79.03 -4.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $67.88 -17.6%
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What Is TXT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $8.07 to $311.40

CirclFi's 11 active models place Textron Inc. (TXT) between $8.07 and $311.40 per share, a spread of 396% of the median. The median of that range — $76.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TXT, against a current price of $82.35.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$8.07median $76.59$311.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$8.07
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$311.40
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TXT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TXT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Textron Inc. (TXT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Textron Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $76.59, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $82.35. With a median implied return of -7.0% across a split 3–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +368.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +278.1% (fair value: $311.40), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -90.2% ($8.07). The spread between these extremes — +368.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TXT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TXT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TXT is $76.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $76.59 on its own, implying -7.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXT Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, TXT ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places TXT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

The Aerospace & Defense sector introduces analytical considerations specific to defense contractor businesses. For Textron Inc., metrics like aftermarket revenue growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TXT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TXT a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Textron Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Textron Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +368.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXT's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Textron Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

ATROAstronics CorporationQOC 8.4VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQOC 8.4AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.QOC 6.8HOVRNew Horizon Aircraft Ltd.QOC 5.1KITTNauticus Robotics, Inc.QOC 3.5BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ATRO · VVX · PKE · CDRE · GD · AIR · AVAV · HOVR · KITT · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TXT?

7 companies across all industries closest to TXT’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3WCCWESCO International, Inc.QOC 8.3BMOBank of MontrealQOC 8.3PBHPrestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.QOC 8.3HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MGRC · OLLI · WCC · BMO · PBH · HAE · NVDA

Where Does TXT Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

TXT is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Textron Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Textron Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Textron Inc. (TXT)'s intrinsic value at $76.59 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.07 to $311.40. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $76.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $82.35, 3 of 11 active models suggest TXT may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $76.59, within 7.0% of the current price of $82.35 — a consensus view that TXT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Textron Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for TXT?

Textron Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXT?

CirclFi analyzes TXT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TXT?

Of the 11 models currently active on TXT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $311.40 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $8.07. CirclFi's published fair value for TXT is the median of that range, $76.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 396% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TXT a value trap in 2026?

Textron Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Textron Inc. (TXT) has a median fair value of $76.59 — within 7.0% of the current price of $82.35 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TXT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TXT valuation
  • Financial statements: Textron Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000217346) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TXT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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