Textron Inc. (TXT) Fair Value 2026

TXT · Aircraft & Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Textron Inc. (TXT) trades at $89.42, approximately 5% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $85.00. QOC: 8.9/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXT
Price
$89.42
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($89.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$85.00 -4.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$61.65 -31.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$68.37 -23.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$88.42 -1.1%

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What Is Textron Inc. (TXT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Textron Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $71.25. Trading at $89.42, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -20.3%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +35.2% (fair value: $120.91), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -90.6% ($8.39). The spread between these extremes — +125.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TXT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TXT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TXT's intrinsic value at $85.00, implying -4.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXT Rank in Aircraft & Parts?

Among 1 Aircraft & Parts stocks, TXT ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places TXT in the top tier.

Textron Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TXT a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for TXT. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Textron Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Textron Inc. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +125.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXT's 13 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Textron Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Frequently Asked Questions About Textron Inc.

What is Textron Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Textron Inc. (TXT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $85.00. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $89.42, 2 of 13 active models suggest TXT may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Textron Inc.'s business model in Aircraft & Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for TXT?

Textron Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXT?

CirclFi analyzes TXT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TXT a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for TXT at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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