What Is Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Simon Property Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $108.46. Trading at its current price of $221.28, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -51.0%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $262.13 (+18.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $10.72 (-95.2%). This +113.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Simon Property Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About SPG?
11 of 13 models are currently active for SPG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SPG's intrinsic value at $55.49, implying -74.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does SPG Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?
Among 190 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, SPG ranks #54 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →
Simon Property Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Real Estate Investment Trusts segment means that debt-to-EBITDA plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including portfolio repositioning — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is SPG a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPG a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
11 of 13 models are active for Simon Property Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Simon Property Group, Inc. scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +113.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every SPG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across SPG's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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