Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Fair Value 2026

SPG · REIT - Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) trades at $214.56, versus a $102.61 median fair value across its 6 active models — 52.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPG
Price
$214.56
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $102.61, 52.2% below the current price of $214.56. Estimates range from $41.22 to $138.33. SPG scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SPG’s -52.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Retail sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Simon Property Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($214.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $99.58 -53.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $90.07 -58.0%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $138.33 -35.5%
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What Is SPG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $41.22 to $138.33

CirclFi's 6 active models place Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) between $41.22 and $138.33 per share, a spread of 95% of the median. The median of that range — $102.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPG, against a current price of $214.56.

Low · PWERMHigh · Regime Cross
$41.22median $102.61$138.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelPWERM$41.22
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$138.33
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Simon Property Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $102.61. Trading at its current price of $214.56, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -52.2%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $138.33 (-35.5%), while PWERM — the most conservative — estimates $41.22 (-80.8%). This +45.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Simon Property Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SPG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for SPG. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SPG is $102.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPG Rank in REIT - Retail?

Among 26 REIT - Retail stocks, SPG ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places SPG in the top tier.

Simon Property Group, Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Retail segment means that brand equity index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SPG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Simon Property Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Simon Property Group, Inc. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +45.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPG's 6 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Simon Property Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related REIT - Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6PECOPhillips Edison & Company, Inc.QOC 8.1REGRegency Centers CorporationQOC 8.6ADCAgree Realty CorporationQOC 8.0FRTFederal Realty Investment TrustQOC 8.9ORealty Income CorporationQOC 7.9NTSTNETSTREIT Corp.QOC 7.8NNNNNN REIT, Inc.QOC 7.4PINEAlpine Income Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.8

Read investment analysis: EPRT · PECO · REG · ADC · FRT · O · NTST · NNN · PINE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPG?

7 companies across all industries closest to SPG’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

NKENIKE, Inc.QOC 8.3CWBCCommunity West BancsharesQOC 8.3VTEXVTEXQOC 8.3TSCOTractor Supply CompanyQOC 8.3BDXBecton, Dickinson and CompanyQOC 8.3ERICTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NKE · CWBC · VTEX · TSCO · BDX · ERIC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Simon Property Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Simon Property Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG)'s intrinsic value at $102.61 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $41.22 to $138.33. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $214.56, 0 of 6 active models suggest SPG may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $102.61, 52.2% below the current price of $214.56 — a consensus view that SPG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Simon Property Group, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for SPG?

Simon Property Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPG?

CirclFi analyzes SPG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPG?

Of the 6 models currently active on SPG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $138.33 per share, and PWERM is the most bearish at $41.22. CirclFi's published fair value for SPG is the median of that range, $102.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 95% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPG a value trap in 2026?

Simon Property Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) has a median fair value of $102.61 — 52.2% below the current price of $214.56 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPG valuation
  • Financial statements: Simon Property Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001063761) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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